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7. Security Issues in Southeast Asia: Commentary
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
- Chapter
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Security Issues in Southeast Asia 49 7 Security Issues in Southeast Asia: Commentary Andrew Tan Tian Huat Dr. Victor Sumsky’s very interesting presentation raises more questions than it answers, though mostly for good reasons. Beyond the diplomatic, multilateralist and constructivist hype, Dr. Sumsky has detected a dismal picture of emerging security threats from terrorism, piracy, transnational crime, dangerous diseases, economic shocks, the end of the developmental state model so famously pioneered in Asia, the rise of new economic and political great powers, ambivalence about the United States, enduring problems of modernization and the difficulties faced by the ASEAN states in rallying together in order to remain a regional entity and a collective player on the global arena. Dr. Sumsky’s presentation alludes to the two views on contemporary Southeast Asia that is evident in the security literature. The first is obviously the very optimistic constructivist literature that is today dominant in Southeast Asian security, that argues the case for the nascent security community that is evolving within the region. The second view is that of the late Michael Leifer’s realist perception of Southeast Asia, best encapsulated in the title of Milton Osborne’s book, A Region of Revolt, published in 1970. In Leifer’s view, norms and multilateralism are important in constructing a better future, but in doing so one should not ignore the very existential 07 ASEAN-RussiaRelations Ch 7 23/1/06, 4:53 PM 49 50 Andrew Tan Tian Huat problems within the region that continue to persist. These include internal revolts, political instability, armed separatisms and insurgencies that point to a more prescient problem of constructing the state’s legitimacy, and of nation-building after decolonization. Even today, in 2005, one could plausibly make a strong case, as Dr. Sumsky in many ways has, that Southeast Asia remains a problematic region. We see for instance, the continued salience of revolt in places such as Aceh, Malukus, Irian Jaya, Southern Thailand, among the Hmongs, the Karens in Burma, the Moros in Southern Philippines, and the Maoist communist insurgency in the Philippines. In recent days, we have also heard of the naval standoff between Indonesia and Malaysia over a disputed award of an oil concession by Malaysia along their sea border. This sort of thing is not new, as in the 1990s, we have witnessed previous naval standoffs between Thailand and Malaysia, Singapore and Malaysia, and more recently, between Brunei and Malaysia over the Kikeh oil dispute. Dr. Sumksy wonders about the future of ASEAN and whether it can respond adequately to emerging challenges. In particular, he wonders if ASEAN can remain in the driver’s seat, or will the emerging great powers with their strong interest in the region, such as a rising China, an increasingly interested India, a visibly more assertive Japan and a United States that is actively engaged given Southeast Asia’s designation as the “second front in the war on terrorism”, thwart ASEAN’s collective efforts and prevent ASEAN from realizing its objective of an ASEAN community, or indeed, that of an East Asian Community. These great powers, and not just the United States, practise time-honoured divide and rule tactics to gain advantages for themselves and to protect their national interests. As for the ASEAN states themselves, they are not slow to break ranks given the important priority of pursuing their national interests above that of regional ones, should push come to shove. Witness for instance China’s success in preventing any forceful ASEAN consensus on the South China Sea issue and ASEAN’s tepid response to the Mischief Reef incident in 1995, when China picked on one of the militarily weakest ASEAN states, the Philippines, to demonstrate its will to maintain its claim over the area. Indeed, the Philippines has capitulated by signing, last year, two agreements permitting joint development in return for an aid package from China. One then cannot be too overly optimistic and I therefore have little to disagree with the general thrust of Dr. Sumsky’s presentation. However, I do have some observations about Russia’s role in the region. It is currently virtually a non-role, as it is not a main player unlike China, the United States, Japan and even India. It is also unidimensional in many 07 ASEAN-RussiaRelations Ch 7 23/1/06, 4:53 PM 50 [3.83.187.36] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 06:32 GMT) Security Issues in Southeast Asia 51 respects, as the perception of Russia...