China's Dilemma: The Taiwan Issue

Introduction

1 Introduction© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore Introduction The rise of China is an important phenomenon in post-Cold War international relations and one which has brought about to many contending views. Not since China–United States rapprochement in the early seventies and China’s reform policy which opened the country up to the outside world in the late seventies, has China created such academic interest. China’s foreign policy has long been influenced by its relations with the Soviet Union and the United States. And in China–United States relations, the Taiwan issue has always been a crucial factor. China’s Taiwan policy is very sensitive to the U.S. stance on this key issue. Its importance to China–United States relations as well as to stability in East Asia was demonstrated by the events that followed Lee Teng-hui’s “private” visit to Cornell University in the United States in June 1995 and his announcement of “special state-to-state relations” with China in July 1999. The Taiwan issue has never been confined to the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait as the United States has always had a role to play. And its influence is likely to continue. A considerable part of this book is therefore devoted to an examination of how China–United States relations have affected the Taiwan issue. China has never treated the Taiwan issue in isolation: it is integral to its overall strategy. Its displeasure with Taiwan since 1995 has not merely been because of Taiwan’s persistent drift away from reunification, but also because of China’s view that Taiwan is helping the United States to contain it and undermine its overall strategy for the next century. This strategy is to keep a low profile in international affairs and concentrate on domestic modernization for the time being. The “one country two systems” formula which China intends for Taiwan is more to prevent Taiwan’s further drift towards independence than to bring about immediate reunification. Reunification before conditions are ripe would create more problems for China. ISEAS D OCUMENT DELIVER Y SERVICE . No reproduction without permission of the publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, SINGAPORE 119614. FAX: (65)7756259; TEL: (65) 8702447; E-MAIL: publish@iseas.edu.sg 2 Introduction© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore The Taiwan issue has not developed as the result of the intentions of only one party. Between China, the United States and Taiwan different interests and strategies, fluid and tricky domestic politics, mutual suspicion and misperception of each other have come into play, leading to one crisis after another. The United States first revived the issue, after it had lain dormant for ten years, with its sale of 150 F-16 fighters to Taiwan in 1992. Then, it formally upgraded its relations with Taiwan in 1994. But it was its issuing of a visa to Taiwan’s president Lee Teng-hui on 22 May 1995 to allow him to visit his alma mater Cornell University in the United States, that really inflamed relations between China and Taiwan. Taiwan has also played an active part in the triangle. In July 1999, Lee Tenghui made waves by raising the controversial “two states” theory. He explained that the controversy would benefit Taipei in the end: “The more controversy, the better. Only this way will everyone pay attention to the key of the Republic of China’s existence. When the whole world knows the Republic of China’s difficult situation, afterwards it will be easier to do things.”1 Lee’s outspokenness and controversial statements since 1994 have been part of a calculated strategy to keep Taiwan at the forefront of international attention. Winning over diplomatic allies would not in itself tilt the balance in Taiwan’s favour (Taiwan has fewer than 30 diplomatic allies), so Taiwan has to ensure it continues to receive international media coverage to remind the world of its existence and plight. By the same token Taiwanese leaders and high officials travel abroad in an attempt to gain more international sympathy, necessary for Taiwan’s survival as a sovereign state. And Taiwan puts a lot of effort and money into the countries that support it diplomatically and into its “pragmatic diplomacy”. Moreover, the Taiwan issue is likely to be revived on the international front by Taiwan every time things quieten down. Taiwan has been the most proactive of the three in the China–United States– Taiwan triangle...