China's Dilemma: The Taiwan Issue

Contents

Contents v© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore CONTENTS Introduction 1 PART I BACKGROUND CHAPTER 1: A HISTORICAL REVIEW 9 The Role of the United States in Taiwan before the 1990s 9 China’s Taiwan Policy before the 1990s 15 Cross-Strait Relations before 1995 18 CHAPTER 2: LEE’S U.S. VISIT AND CHINA’S RESPONSE 24 Response to the United States 26 Response to Taiwan 27 Missiles Tests and Military Exercises 28 War Zone, Warnings and Verbal Attacks 32 PART II CHINA VS. THE UNITED STATES OVER TAIWAN CHAPTER 3: US CHINA POLICY: FACING A RISING CHINA 39 The Rise of China and U.S. Concern 41 China’s Vulnerabilities 43 A Security Surplus: Safe at Home and in the Neighbourhood 43 The North-Eastern Flank: Japan and the Two Koreas 44 The Northern Flank: Russia and Mongolia 44 vi Contents© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore Islamic Influences and Tibet in the West 45 No “Leading Hard Power” 48 Military Power 48 Economic Power 49 No “Leading Soft Power” 53 The China Challenge 56 The “Hand-Shaped” Asia-Pacific Strategy 57 CHAPTER 4: CHINA’S U.S. POLICY: TO AVOID A HEAD-ON COLLISION 61 Taiwan in China’s Overall Development Strategy 61 Chinese Reading of U.S. Motivation 62 U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan 63 The U.S. Upgrades Relations with Taiwan 64 Lee is Granted a U.S. Visa 65 Why China Responded So Strongly 67 Why China Exercised Such Restraint 68 To Avoid Conflict in an Unsettled World 68 Three Hot Curves and Four Hot Spots 70 How Can China Fend Off the United States? 70 Chinese Reconciliation 71 Fence-Mending 73 Trends and Impact 78 PART III CHINA VS. TAIWAN CHAPTER 5: ON A COLLISION COURSE 89 China’s Perception of Taiwan 89 Taiwan’s Position on Unification 99 Bid for U.N. Membership 101 Nan Jin, Bei Lian, Xi He Policy 102 Jiang’s Eight-Point Proposal 104 Lee’s Six-Point Reply 105 The Last Straw: Lee’s U.S. Visit 106 Contents vii© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore CHAPTER 6: BARK WITHOUT BITE 110 The P.L.A. Capability 110 Air Force 110 Su-27 Fighters 111 J-10 Fighters 112 FC-1 Fighters 112 Navy 113 Destroyers 114 Submarines 114 Missiles 115 Taiwan’s Vulnerabilities 119 Economic and Social Vulnerabilities 120 Military Options 123 Why Not Attack? 125 CHAPTER 7: TAIWAN AFTER THE FACE-OFF 130 “Go Nuclear”? 130 Calling for International Support 131 The March Presidential Election 132 Presidential Inauguration 133 Military Modernization 134 Economic Resistance 137 Economic Brakes 137 Go Further South 139 Develop Okinawa? 140 Resisting the Three Direct Links 141 Pushing “Pragmatic Diplomacy” Further 144 On Unification 144 Ideologicalizing the Tension 145 Pushing for More International Space 145 The U.N. and I.M.F. Bid 146 “Private Visits” 146 Economic Diplomacy 147 The Dalai Lama’s Visit 149 viii Contents© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore National Development Conference and Freezing of the Provincial Government 150 “Flexible Engagement” 151 CHAPTER 8: CHINA AFTER THE FACE-OFF 156 Rising Nationalism and Domestic Politics 156 Counter-Measures 159 Diplomatic Blockade 160 On Arms Sales 162 On “Pragmatic Diplomacy” 164 Military Pressure 166 Political Pressure 169 Resumption of Cross-Strait Talks 170 Economic Engagement 175 The Hong Kong Card 179 Push for the Three Direct Links 181 The Economic Importance of Three Direct Links 182 The W.T.O. Card 184 The Shanghai Card 185 The High Technology Card 186 PART IV CONCLUSION CHAPTER 9: STALEMATE AND DILEMMA 193 Strategy and Rationale 193 Working on the United States 194 Working on Taiwan 197 Working on the K.M.T. 197 Working on the D.P.P. 199 Taiwan Pushes Ahead 201 Taiwan’s Reading of China’s Internal Politics 202 Taiwan’s Reading of International Support 202 Koo’s China Visit in 1998 204 Differences 205 How to Interpret This? 206 Contents ix© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore CHAPTER 10: THE SPLASH OF THE “TWO STATES” THEORY 210 Taiwan Makes a Big Splash 210 Chinese and International Pressure 212 Taiwan Explains 212 The Motivation 215 China’s Dilemma 217 Trust the K.M.T.? 217 Trust the People in Taiwan? 219 What Will China Do? 220 A Phased Response 221 Economic Competition 222 Military Modernization...