China's Dilemma: The Taiwan Issue

6. Bark without Bite

Part III: China vs. Taiwan 110© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore 6 Bark without Bite Despite China’s strong displeasure over Lee’s United States visit, its military exercises were only intended to be symbolic. To explain this, this chapter examines China’s military capability, especially its air force, navy and ground troops, and its overall strategy before finally explaining the rationale behind its actions. The P.L.A. Capability In 1995, the P.L.A. had 2.2 million ground troops out of a total of about 3 million military personnel, up to 8,000 main battle tanks, 2,000 light tanks, 4,500 armoured infantry fighting vehicles and personnel carriers, 14,500 towed artillery pieces and 3,800 multiple-rocket launchers. The P.L.A. Navy had 52 submarines, 18 destroyers, 32 frigates and about 870 patrol and coastal vessels. Its naval air force had 855 shore-based combat aircraft and 68 armed helicopters. It also had a marine force of 5,000 and 25,000 coastal defence troops. The Chinese Air Force had about 4,970 combat aircraft. By comparison, in 1995, Taiwan had an army of 240,000 with 570 main battle tanks and 905 light tanks. Its navy consisted of 4 submarines, 22 destroyers, 16 frigates and 98 patrol and coastal vessels. The Taiwanese Air Force had 430 combat aircraft. If the P.L.A. controlled the air and sea, the massive P.L.A. ground forces would overwhelm Taiwan’s troops. However, the question is, could the P.L.A. indeed gain such control? Air Force In 1995, the P.L.A. air force (P.L.A.A.F.) had the third largest fleet in the world, but most of their equipment was obsolete, largely consisting of outmoded combat aircraft such as the Nanchang J-5, Shenyang J-6, Xian J-7 and Shenyang J-8 fighters. ISEAS D OCUMENT DELIVER Y SERVICE . No reproduction without permission of the publisher: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, SINGAPORE 119614. FAX: (65)7756259; TEL: (65) 8702447; E-MAIL: publish@iseas.edu.sg 111 Bark without Bite© 2001 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore China made efforts to upgrade its outmoded fighters in the 1980s. However, the so-called “Peace Pearl” project undertaken with the United States in the 1980s for the improvement of the J-8II, which was a development of the J-7 (Mikjoyan MiG-21), proved to be economically costly (30–40 per cent higher than originally estimated) and technologically disappointing. China dropped the project before the Bush Administration’s announcement that it would suspend the project following the Tiananmen incident of 1989. From then on, China looked to other sources to supply its J-8IIs. Su-27 Fighters China signed an agreement with Russia to buy Su-27s in 1992. The first 26 Su27s were ready for combat in 1994 and were equipped with medium-range AA10s active guidance air-to-air missiles and short-range AA-8 infra-red guided missiles (Taiwan claimed that instead of AA-10s, China’s Su-27s were equipped with the more advanced R-77 medium-range missiles)1 . The Su-27, known in the West as the “Flanker”, was first deployed in 1984 in Russia and is now one of the mainstays of the Russian airforce. The 26 Su27s deployed in Wuhu, Anhui Province at the end of 1994, could cover Taiwan with their 1,500-kilometre combat radius. However, in 1995, their threat to Taiwan was not too serious because they were small in number, their avionics were too conventional and the radar guidance system for their AA-10 intermediate-range surface-to-surface missiles was outmoded. Later, 24 more Su-27 fighters were delivered (the deal apparently also included the AA-10 missiles), and deployed in Zhanjiang and Guangdong in the south of China. The new Su-27s were updated versions with improved avionics and a fire control radar capable of multi-target engagements (simultaneous scanning and tracking) as well as other combat support functions. However, the new batch was not delivered until 1996. At the end of 1995, China signed a contract with Rosvooruzheniye (the main Russian dealer in arms and military hardware) to buy another 72 Su-27s as a prelude to licensing their production by Shenyang Aircraft Manufacturing Company. Moscow would also train the personnel.2 However, the P.L.A.A.F. would not be able to upset the balance of power in the...