Indonesian Electoral Behaviour: A Statistical Perspective

Preface

Preface Our first book in this series, Indonesia’s Population: Ethnicity and Religion in a Changing Political Landscape, presents general Indonesian population profiles with special reference to ethnicity and religion at the provincial level. At the end of the above-mentioned book, there is a chapter which analyses both ethnic and religious factors in the Indonesian 1999 election, using a qualitative approach with simple tabulations. This book, which also examines the 1999 general election, is a follow up to that study but it uses a quantitative or statistical approach rather than a qualitative one. Not only does it deal with the same subject matter as in the last chapter of our first book, but also adds socio-economic variables to explain Indonesian electoral behaviour. Furthermore, the analysis is not confined to the provincial level but to the district level as well. Indeed, this study focuses on the district level in greater statistical detail. We are fully aware that this book has limitations, but we feel that it will help readers not only understand the 1999 election but also the 2004 elections and beyond. This book also provides readers with information on social, economic and political conditions at the district level; such information has become increasingly important as Indonesia implements the regional autonomy programme. Prior to publication, we held a public seminar entitled “Indonesian Elections and Political Parties: Cultural and Economic Correlates” on 4 December 2004 at ISEAS. Many Indonesianists were present and we benefited from their feedback. We would like to take this opportunity to express our deep appreciation to them. We would like to express our sincere thanks to the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS or Indonesian Central Board of Statistics) for allowing us to work with their data, especially with the 2000 population census. A special thanks goes to our colleagues in the BPS, particularly Bahtiar and Mohammad Taufiq, for their kind assistance in our research. We are also thankful to the Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU or the Committee on General Election) for providing us with the detailed data on the 1999 election. We would also like to express our gratitude to the Director of ISEAS, Mr K. Kesavapany, for his constant support for this project, and the Lee Foundation for its financial support. Last but not least, our deep appreciation goes to the ISEAS Publications Unit for their professional assistance in editing and publishing this book so quickly. Nevertheless, no one is responsible for the views and facts presented in this book except for the three authors. Aris Ananta Evi Nurvidya Arifin Leo Suryadinata XXVIII PREFACE ...