The Asia-Pacific Security Lexicon (Upated 2nd Edition)

BALANCE OF POWER

21 BALANCE OF POWER According to Kenneth Waltz, “if there is any distinctively political theory of international politics, balance of power theory is it.” 1 While the idea of the balance of power is often taken for granted in writings on security, it has always been a hotly contested and controversial notion. It is seen by some as being akin to “a law of nature; by others, as simply an outrage. Some view it as a guide to statesmen; others a cloak that disguises their imperialist policies. Some believe that a balance of power is the best guarantee of the security of states and the peace of the world; others, that it has ruined states by causing most of the wars they have fought.” 2 While some writers imply the term has a “common sense” meaning, there are several distinct ways in which balance of power can be used, although many scholars tend to confuse and conflate them.3 Ernst Haas uncover ed eight dif ferent definitions in his work and Martin W ight found nine. 4 Han Morgenthau, the paterfamilias of American realism, used four dif ferent meanings. This confusion prompted Haas to entitle his seminal 1953 essay on the subject: “Balance of Power: Pr escription, Concept, or Propaganda?”5 According to Inis Claude, the term balance of power has two principal meanings. First, “a situation of equilibrium”, and second, “a system of states engaged in competitive manipulation of power 01 A_Pac Security Lexicon 9/24/07, 9:03 AM 21 22 relationships among themselves”. 6 Similarly, Morgenthau distinguishes between the balance of power as “a policy” aimed at creating a certain state of af fairs, and “an actual state of af fairs.”7 Despite these clear distinctions, Claude laments that “champions of balance of power rar ely bother to define their cr ucial terms.” He argues that unless scholars state which definition is being used, “we cannot be certain whether we ar e being asked to welcome a result or to accept the claim that a certain mechanism is reliably conducive to that result.”8 As a condition, state of affairs, or situation, the balance of power refers to a roughly equal distribution of power existing between two or mor e states. It can be br oken down further into what Hedley Bull called “simple” or “complex” balances. A simple balance of power is one made up of just two powers, while a complex balance involves thr ee or more. According to Bull, the important difference between the two is that while a simple balance requires equality of power between the actors, a complex balance does not. In a system with three or more actors, the development of gross inequalities in power among them does not necessarily put the str ongest in a position of pr eponderance because the others have the ability to combine against it. 9 Bull also distinguishes between what he calls the “general balance of power” and “local” or “particular” balances of power. A general balance exists when no one actor has a pr eponderance of power in the international system as a whole. In some ar eas of the world, such as Southeast Asia, a local balance of power exists. In other areas — Bull gives the Caribbean as an example — there may actually be a local pr eponderance of power. However, neither situation belies the fact that ther e can be a general balance of power across the entire international system.10 There is no pr ecise way to determine whether a balance of power exists in a given international or der. Measuring the distribution of relative power among states is not an exact science and there is no sure way to determine whether power is balanced or unbalanced at any given time. However , as Arnold Wolfers notes, “it makes sense to speak of an existing balance of power — or of a fair approximation to such a balance — whenever there are indications that two opposing nations, or blocs of nations, ar e being deterred from putting their opponents’ total power to the test.”11 In a study of the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific, Paul Dibb refers to a balance existing when “no one power is in a position to determine the fate of others.” 12 Bull says that it is not BALANCE OF POWER 01 A_Pac Security Lexicon 9/24/07, 9:03 AM 22 23 enough for...