Demographic Avant-Garde: Jews in Bohemia between the Enlightenment and the Shoah

Chapter 9. Natural Population Increase, Migration, Religious Disaffiliation, and Acculturation

CHAPTER 9 Natural Population Increase, Migration, Religious Disaffiliation, and Acculturation The dynamic component of demographic events and the static component of population stocks are the data that make up the picture of population change. The former consists of events usually reported yearly: births, deaths, and in- and out-migration. When studying demographic changes affecting a religious minority, it is also necessary to include religious conversions into and out of the respective religion. The static component consists of population size and structure, usually measured in censuses. Assuming we have absolutely accurate data on both population dynamics and stocks, the population count at time x+1 would perfectly match the count at time x plus the population dynamics during the intercensal period between x and x+1. Reality is usually very far from this ideal, but the interplay between stocks, the known components of population dynamics, and other sources can help to fill in some of the gaps in an incomplete demographic mosaic. That is the focus of this chapter. The preceding chapters reviewed the available sources on population dynamics, and here is a brief recapitulation: – There is reliable information on population stocks from censuses conducted between the 1780s and 1930. – There is unreliable information on fertility and mortality before 1848, but reliable data on both events between 1848 and 1937. – There is no information on in-and out-migration. – There is almost no information on conversions to and from the Jewish faith. This chapter will begin with an analysis of natural increase and then proceed to estimate figures on migration and religious conversion and show how these two processes contributed to population growth. 112 Demographic Avant-Garde Data sources: This chapter is based on vital statistics for the period 1857–1937. Earlier data (before 1849) are unreliable and are better left out of the population growth analysis. I also use data from all the population censuses conducted between 1857 and 1930. Detailed references to these data sources are provided in Appendices 1 and 2. The data on religious conversions are drawn from secondary sources, such as Čapková (2012) and Staudacher (2010). I refer here to “religious conversions” when a person moves from one religion to another, or becomes without religion by a legal act. I use the term “religious disaffiliation” when it happens that people become secularized (step out from a religious community) or just do not practice, or maybe they do not qualify for some reason. The last applies well to the children of mixed marriages. Natural increase and population change balance Natural increase, expressed as the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths in a given year, was positive among Jews until the turn of the twentieth century. In the second half of the nineteenth century the rate of natural increase (RNI), the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate in a given year, went from 13.5 per thousand in 1857 (1,168 people surplus) to 7.9 per thousand in 1890, and reached zero in 1904. Since 1905 the number of yearly deaths was higher than the number of live births and the Jewish natural increase rate became negative. It descended to −12.1 per thousand (−924 individuals) in 1937 (see Figure 9.1). However, when compared to the total Jewish population growth between the censuses, it was already negative after 1890. This means that despite the still positive natural increase other factors (net migration or religious conversion) negatively influenced Jewish population growth. The effect of net migration and religious conversion can be estimated by calculating the balance between total population change and natural increase based on census and vital statistics data (the vital statistics method, Table 9.1).1 1 The vital statistics method consists of calculating the difference between total population change, as assessed from two censuses, and natural increase during the intercensal period . Chapter 9. Natural Population Increase, Migration, Religious Disaffiliation… 113 Figure 9.1: Crude birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), and the rate of natural increase (RNI), Jews in Bohemia, 1857-1937 RNI 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 8 5 5 1 8 6 5 1 8 7 5 1 8 8 5 1 8 9 5 1 9 0 5 1 9 1 5 1 9 2 5 1 9 3 5 Year CBR/ CDR per thousand -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10...