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476 Document No. 88: CIA National Intelligence Daily, “Poland: Test of government’s Measures” December 14, 1981 This brief update, prepared the day after martial law, is decidedly sketchy about the previous day’s events, which limits the authors in their ability to predict what will happen next. The assumption—accurate, as it turned out—is Solidarity and Polish workers will not submit to the crackdown without a battle. Despite communications black-outs, news soon filtered out of fighting in several cities as workers occupied factories and the union, including Wałęsa who was in custody, refused to negotiate with the regime. Unfortunately, excisions in the document veil additional details about what U.S. intelligence knew in the immediate aftermath of the regime’s actions. Poland: Test of government’s Measures The Polish government moved quickly and decisively yesterday to create the legal structure for martial law, but the first real test of these procedures will come today as workers return to the factories. [One word excised.] The detention of about 1000 union activists, including most of Solidarity’s national leadership, may cow some factory workers, but union members are not likely to passively accept defeat. [One word excised.] Solidarity presumably is attempting to institute contingency plans, including provisions for automatic changes in the leadership as senior members are detained. Union leaders in gdańsk who escaped arrest have indicated that they are forming a national strike committee and that a general strike would be the appropriate response to the government’s action. The strongest response to the government’s measures may come from local chapters along the Baltic coast. [One word excised.] The government, according to its press spokesman, is conducting talks with union leader Wałęsa in the Warsaw area. The regime, hoping that announcement of such talks will prompt workers to take a wait-and-see attitude, would like Wałęsa to make some kind of statement calling on workers to avoid strikes. Wałęsa would be reluctant to do so, however, because he realizes that such an action could damage his credibility. Archbishop glemp publicly criticized the government for abandoning the process of dialogue but urged the populace not to resort to violence. [One word excised.] The regime is aware that sit-in strikes may take place today and seems prepared to use force, a move that carries with it the danger of bloodshed and civil war. [One word excised] [One paragraph excised.] 477 Soviet and East European Reactions Soviet forces are not actively involved, but Soviet authorities in Poland, headed by Marshal Kulikov—the Commander-in-Chief of Warsaw Pact forces—were aware of the Polish plans. [Half paragraph excised.] [One paragraph excised.] Soviet media continue to report selectively but without comment on Prime Minister Jaruzelski’s speech and the measures being undertaken. TASS reports that the situation is generally calm in most areas of Poland. [Half line excised.] [Source: FOIA release from the CIA, on file at the National Security Archive, “Soviet Flashpoints” collection.] ...

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