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Chapter 9: The period of agricultural stagnation (1976–1990)
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CHAPTER 9 The period of agricultural stagnation (1976–1990) The period of so-called developed Socialism was later, under Gorbachev , renamed “the period of stagnation” . During this period the Soviet Union developed as an industrial power able to compete with the USA and Western European countries. Due to the discovery of large oil and gas fields in Western Siberia, the Soviet Union strengthened its position in the world energy sector in the 1970s. The fuel industry started to play the role of the main sponsor of all important Soviet industrial and agricultural projects. However, domestic capacity and technology were not sufficient and the USSR was obliged to purchase pipes, gas extraction technology, and compressors from Western countries. Despite its favorable position in the world fuel market there were clear indications of a slowing down of Soviet economic growth. The rate of industrial growth fell from 8.4 percent in the second half of the 1960s to 3.5 percent between 1981 and 1985. In the agriculture sector the corresponding figures were 4.3 percent and 1.4 percent. The year 1976 was regarded by many experts as a watershed for the Soviet economy, since in this year the process of decline became more apparent in all areas, including agriculture. 9.1. Major developments in agriculture During this period the Soviet authorities continued to make massive investments in the agricultural sector. In the tenth five-year plan period (1976–1980), at 172 billion rubles (230 billion dollars), the proposed total would be 31 percent up on the 1971 to 1975 figures, whereas the rise in the Soviet economy was only 24 percent (Economist, 1977). The following five years (1981–1986) were characterized by only a 10 percent increase in investments. In absolute figures this means that 38 to 40 billion rubles were spent on agriculture each year as opposed to 34 billion Climate Dependence and Food Problems in Russia, 1900–1990 rubles a year in the previous five years (Izvestia, 1980b). The slowing of the rate of growth in investment in Soviet agriculture is understandable, since expenditure had already reached a very high level by the end of the 1960s. The share of state investment in agriculture had risen from 23 percent in 1966–1970 to 26 percent in 1971–1975. Between 1976 and 1980, capital expenditure on agriculture had consistently accounted for 27 percent of the total budgeted by the USSR. In the early 1980s, the share of the total state investment reached 33 to 35 percent for the whole agro-industrial sector1 , with the same 27 to 28 percent for agriculture. The main focus of the investment was still the livestock sector, which was intended to be transformed into a highly industrialized and specialized branch of the economy. However, there were three new longterm projects which absorbed a considerable part of the money allocated to agriculture. A large part of the investment was to go to the forest-poor podzolic soil areas. The non-black earth zone included 29 oblasts with a population of more than 58 million (or 44 percent of the total population of the RSFSR in 1975). Agricultural lands occupied an area of about 52 million hectares, including 32 million hectares of arable land or 24 percent of the total arable area in the RSFSR. In 1975 this area produced 13 percent of the USSR’s grain, 35 percent of its potatoes, 19 percent of its vegetables, 16 percent of its meat, and 21 percent of its milk. Grain production was scheduled to increase from 18.8 million tons in 1975 to 31 million tons in 1980 (Severin and Carey, 1978). This 15-year plan was announced for the first time by Leonid Brezhnev in March 1974. Disappointed by the instability of harvests in the steppe zone, the Soviet authorities turned to the forest zone in the hope that the area could become a stable base for grain output to counter the erratic production caused by unreliable rainfall in the Black Earth zone and virgin lands. The non-black earth zone has a relatively short growing season but the highest average annual rainfall of any agricultural area in the USSR. In its note to the government, Gosplan particularly stressed that this area had never experienced a severe drought. The report also noted that because of weak support in the years of the virgin lands campaign, the growth of local agriculture had become slower, and even declined, in relation to the livestock production sector (Kiselev and Shagin...