Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency in South Asia

Narco-Trafficking in Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Areas and Implications for Security

43 the national bureau of asian research Narco-Trafficking in PakistanAfghanistan Border Areas and Implications for Security Louise I. Shelley with Nazia Hussain LOUISE I. SHELLEY is Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Center for Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption at George Mason University. She is a leading expert on transnational crime and terrorism with a particular focus on the former Soviet Union. She can be reached at . NAZIA HUSSAIN is a PhD student in Public Policy at George Mason University. She holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Punjab, Lahore, and received an MA in International Relations from Boston University while a Fulbright Scholar. She can be reached at . Originally published in: Vanda Felbab-Brown, Louise I. Shelley with Nazia Hussain, and Ehsan Ahrari, “Narco-Jihad: Drug Trafficking and Security in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report, no. 20, December 2009.© 2012 The National Bureau of Asian Research. This PDF is provided for the use of authorized recipients only. For specific terms of use, please contact . EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper explores the global dynamics of the drug trade in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area and analyzes the interface of regional actors with key players and networks outside the region. MAIN FINDINGS • Afghanistan produces 90% of the world’s opium supply, a third of which is transited through Pakistan. Opium is not the only illicit trade in the Pakistan and Afghanistan border regions, however. Afghanistan is now the second-largest cannabis resin producer in the world. There is also significant illicit trade in timber, antiquities, and cigarettes in the border areas. • In addition to southern routes through Pakistan, drug traffickers rely on western routes via Iran and northern routes through the Central Asian states. As Russia became deeply integrated into the global drug market due to inadequate border controls and large-scale migration among the Soviet successor states, routes through Central Asian states have become extremely important in the global drug trade. • The drug trade across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is not only weakening state control but also cementing linkages among drug traffickers throughout the larger region, Taliban, insurgents, and criminal groups. In turn, this nexus of drugs, crime, and insurgents threatens NATO supply routes and offers resistance to ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal areas. This nexus also poses a significant challenge because the networks of the drug trade that support the conflict are not contained within the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • A culture dependent on illicit trade develops along with the societal norms supportive of this criminal activity. This suggests the need for incentives other than legitimate employment to encourage growers and marketers away from the drug business. • Analysts and policymakers should not ignore drug-related activities of the warlords. Drugs and crime are not a peripheral problem to the establishment and maintenance of order. Now that the drug problem has grown significantly, in the future warlords involved with drug trafficking, once they no longer receive support from U.S. and NATO troops, will be less likely to cooperate in fighting terrorists. The warlords’ accommodation is temporary and one of convenience. 45 NARCO-TRAFFICKING IN PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN BORDER AREAS u SHELLEY & HUSSAIN T he drug trade in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas has important implications for regional and global security that transcend the problem of the sale of drugs as an income source for citizens and conflict. Although the illicit drug trade constitutes a significant portion of Afghanistan’s revenues, its impact is far more than economic. The instability and insurgency funded by the drug trade compound and perpetuate the political instability of Afghanistan, which now dates back 30 years to the time of the Soviet invasion. Similar to the situation in Colombia, the drug trade aggravates the instability of decades of internal conflict. The situation in Afghanistan is even more acute, however. The revenues tied to the drug trade in Afghanistan represent a much greater share of national revenue than in Colombia. Drugs are believed to account for one-third of GNP in Afghanistan—a multiple of the situation in Colombia where, at the height the drug trade, drug production possibly accounted for a maximum of 10% of the economy.1 Moreover, Afghanistan may be unique in that, according to the former finance minister, an estimated 60% of the country’s economy is based on illicit trade.2 Although the drug...