Strategic Asia 2006-07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security

Contents

Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Richard J. Ellings Strategic Asia: Overview Trade, Interdependence, and Security in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Ashley J. Tellis Anexplorationofhowgrowinglevelsoftradeandinterdependence fit into the grand strategies of Asian states and how changing economic relationships could affect regional stability. Strategic Asia: Country Studies The Superpower as Super-Debtor: Implications of Economic Disequilibria for U.S.-Asian Relations. . . . . .29 Stephen D. Cohen An examination of why the ongoing refusal of the United States to live within its economic means poses challenges to U.S. domestic prosperity, dilutes U.S. credibility as a global superpower, and elevates U.S.-East Asian economic interdependence to uncharted levels of complexity. Rising China: The Search for Power and Plenty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 Michael R. Chambers An analysis of the growth of China’s trade and economic interdependence with both its Asian neighbors and the United States and assessment of the impact these developments will have on China’s security and the security of the Asia-Pacific region. Back to Normal? The Promise and Pitfalls of Japan’s Economic Integration . . . . . . . . . . .105 Michael Mastanduno An examination of the three significant challenges facing Japan: to restore sustained economic growth, to maintain the positive momentum that has developed in relations with the U.S., and to deepen economic interdependence while improving security relations in its region. South Korea’s Embrace of Interdependence in Pursuit of Security . . . 139 David C. Kang An analysis of the current and future impact of South Korea’s growing trade and economic interdependence for ROK security and relations in Northeast Asia. The chapter will seek to answer two basic questions: (1) Why has South Korea pursued a strategy of engagement toward North Korea? and (2) What is the impact of South Korea’s changing foreign policy on the U.S.-ROK alliance? Russia’s Economic Role in Asia: Toward Deeper Integration . . . . . . . . .173 Peter Rutland An examination of Russia’s role in Asia, including to what extent Russia is turning eastward from Europe in its foreign economic and political strategies and what forces are driving Russia’s actions. Strategic Asia: Regional Studies Trade, Energy, and Security in the Central Asian Arena . . . . . . . . . . . . .205 Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler An examination of whether the economic structures, sociopolitical conditions, resources, and trade patterns of Central Asia are likely to generate significant regional or international conflict in the coming decade. The Limits of Integration in Improving South Asian Security . . . . . . . .241 Devesh Kapur and Kavita Iyengar An assessment of economic relations in South Asia, particularly India’s economic interactions with its neighbors and security implications for the region. Strategic Dimensions of Economic Interdependence in Southeast Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .271 Donald E. Weatherbee An examination of the evolving geo-economic environment in Southeast Asia, particularly the rise and high visibility of the PRC, and the implications for U.S. economic, political, and security interests in the ASEAN region. Strategic Asia: Special Studies China: Can Economic Growth Continue without Political Reform? . . . . . . . . .303 Minxin Pei An examination of whether political reform is necessary in China in order for the country to sustain economic growth into the future. Will Economic Interdependence Encourage China’s and India’s Peaceful Ascent? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333 David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson An analysis of how economic interdependence has shaped the emergence of new great powers, as well as the responses of existing powers to their rise, and an exploration of how these historical patterns might apply to 21st century Asia, particularly to relations among the U.S., China, and India. When the Flu Comes: Political and Economic Risks of Pandemic Disease in Asia. . . . . . . . . . 365 Ann Marie Kimball An examination of the potential impacts of an avian flu pandemic in the Asia-Pacific, in particular the effects on regional economic integration, effectiveness of regional responses, and implications for the United States. Strategic Asia: Indicators Strategic Asia by the Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .393 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .415 About the Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .425 About Strategic Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .431 ...