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Preface
- National Bureau of Asian Research
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- Additional Information
Preface Richard J. Ellings Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy is the seventh in the series of annual reports produced by NBR’s Strategic Asia Program. This year’s volume investigates the internal transformations taking place in pivotal Asian states and how these changes are affecting, or could affect, their respective grand strategies and foreign relations. Although it is generally understood that domestic politics plays an important role in how nations interact, this topic has been under-studied in the Asian regional context. The Asia-Pacific’s emergence as the center of world economic, political, and military power makes such an analysis long overdue. It is unclear whether the dynamic social and political forces at work in the region will ultimately challenge or support the current structure of international relations, but there can be no doubt that the global impact of such forces will be profound. A close examination of the domestic circumstances in Asia reveals multiple factors that act to constrain or reinforce states’ strategic objectives and governments’ decisionmaking options. Economics is a prominent factor, most notably for China. Upon its extraordinary economic development, China is building a powerful international presence. Indeed, achieving great power status in the region and the international community is a vital concern to China’s leaders in order to satisfy popular demand and mitigate pressure on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) legitimacy. Before China can feel secure as a great power, however, it must solve significant internal challenges. The CCP faces complex and daunting socio-economic issues, the continuing task of economic reform, and inevitably political reform. Asian states are experiencing significant and varying domestic political transitions. Japan and India are seeing their democratic political systems mature, while South Korea and Indonesia are beginning to consolidate democracy and realize its gains. Although a leadership transition may x • Strategic Asia 2007–08 not be likely in the near term, the CCP is slowly implementing political reforms and loosening strict control over China’s populace in response to the internal and external pressures of being a major power. Russia is reemerging as a regional power, but under Putin’s increasingly centralized and patrimonial rule, once again the country’s elite is using politics, as opposed to markets, for personal gain. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, weak political institutions are creating space for both the rise of a radical Islamist minority and an increasingly active role for their respective militaries. Central Asian governments are struggling to build genuine political institutions and defend simultaneously against the revival of communism and new ideological challenges from radical Islam. Islam and other symbols of identity politics are important factors in Asia’s political environment. In some states the rise of subnational groups organized along religious and ethnic lines is creating fissures that threaten domestic stability. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, for example, volatile ethnic, religious, and national identities—especially when taken together with the growing voice of radical Islamist groups—spill dangerously into South Asia and beyond. The conflict between the Thai government and the separatist insurgency in Thailand’s Muslim southern provinces has severe implications for Southeast Asia. Other states, however, are coalescing around national identities and drawing upon them to act more decisively in the international arena. Nationalism is on the rise across Asia. Chinese nationalism reflects the aspirations of a people who see their country once again being a great power, but it is tinged with grievances from perceptions of past Japanese, European, and American imperialism. Largely in response to China’s rise, Japan is increasingly assertive in global affairs. South Korea’s emerging national identity is shaping its decisions as a pivotal actor in Northeast Asia. India, also sensitive to China’s tremendous growth, is reasserting itself in international affairs. Frequently nationalism is manifested in energy politics as well: China’s global reach for energy supplies, Russia’s renewal with resurgent energy diplomacy, and Iranian oil and nuclear policies. Although traditional security concerns remain central in the grand strategies of Asia’s major powers, non-traditional security is increasingly relevant. Declining environmental health indices and increasing economic disparities have accompanied the region’s rapid development and modernization. Many governments in Asia, most notably that of China, are challenged to ensure that economic growth continues at a significant pace and is widely shared in society in order to remain a political asset. Moreover, the prospect of democratization throughout the region is challenged by new or resilient patterns of militarization or social control in countries such...