Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge

Chapter8: The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand

CHAPTER 8 The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand In this chapter we analyze the effects of projected patterns of population and household change on transportation related services. We do not explore the effects of population change on all transportation modes, but focus primarily on the forms of personal transportation used on a daily basis. We specifically examine the effects of change in the size of the population as well as change in the population’s age, sex, and race/ethnicity characteristics and change in the household composition on the number of licensed drivers, yearly vehicle miles of travel, number of crashes, vehicle ownership, and changes in modes of daily work commuting. In 1950, less than half of the population in Texas was licensed to drive (a licensure rate of 362.7 drivers per 1,000 people [Table 8.1]). At that time, drivers were largely male and most households owned only one vehicle. The number of drivers increased rapidly from the 1950s through the 1970s, as more people were able to afford the cost of purchasing and maintaining a vehicle. At the same time, public and private policies, such as the development of modern freeways, suburban development, and limited development of public transportation systems made the car necessary for most transportation needs. Finally, and probably more significantly, the increase in the number of drivers coincided with the rapid increase in the number of women entering the labor force beginning in the 1960s (Pisarski 2006). Today, an almost equal number of women and men are licensed to drive in Texas, although there are some variations by race/ethnicity. In a society dependent upon the automobile for most forms of interand intra-urban transportation, the lack of a vehicle can limit a person’s 174 Chapter 8 economic and social interactions. For example, workers with cars are able to travel further distances in a shorter amount of time so that they have more job opportunities. People who own vehicles are more likely to drive to reach work or other destinations than those who use any other form of transportation (Polzin et al. 2001; Pucher and Renne 2003). The single best predictor of vehicle ownership is income, and because of household income differences between nonHispanic White households and other groups, households headed by persons from minority groups are less likely to own a vehicle than nonHispanic White households and the driver’s licensure rates among minorities is lower than that of nonHispanic Whites (Giuliano and Dargay 2006; Dargay et al. 2007; Pisarski 2006). The differences in vehicle ownership and driver’s licensure rates influence the types of transportation that individuals use for various purposes. Persons who are nonHispanic Black, because of a variety of factors including lack of resources to purchase and maintain a vehicle and a large proportion of nonHispanic Black persons living in major urban areas where public transit is available, were more likely to take public transportation on the journey to work than any other group in 2000 and 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau 2011a, 2002; Kim 2009; Giuliano 2003; Polzin et al. 2001). At the same time, Hispanics have higher carpooling rates than any Table 8.1 Total Population, Total Licensed Drivers, Licensed Drivers per 1,000 People in Texas, and Percent Change, 1950–2010 Number Percent Change from Previous Decade Licensed Drivers Per 1,000 Population Year Population Drivers Population Drivers Drivers Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 2,796,862 — — 362.7 — 1960 9,579,677 4,352,168 24.2 55.6 454.3 25.3 1970 11,196,730 6,380,057 16.9 46.6 569.8 25.4 1980 14,229,191 9,287,826 27.1 45.6 652.7 14.6 1990 16,986,510 11,136,694 19.4 19.9 655.6 0.4 2000 20,851,820 13,462,023 22.8 20.9 645.6 –1.5 2010 25,145,561 15,157,650 20.6 12.6 602.8 –6.6 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation 1991, 2001–2010, 2011b; U.S. Census Bureau 1991b, 2001b, 2011c. Transportation Services 175 other group. This is likely a result of a combination of factors, including working in occupations conducive to carpooling and having a larger proportion of households with only one vehicle or no vehicles at all leading to ridesharing with family and friends. In addition, Hispanics...