Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge

Chapter 4: Effects of Demographic Change on the Size, Race /Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Texas Labor Force

CHAPTER 4 Effects of Demographic Change on the Size, Race/ Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Texas Labor Force Among the most critical elements shaping the future of Texas are the characteristics of its labor force. In this chapter we examine recent trends in the growth of the Texas labor force and the implications of the state’s changing demographics for the size and characteristics of the future labor force, including implications for the occupation of workers, their educational levels, and their wages and salaries. By so doing, we examine both the opportunities and challenges presented by the future characteristics of Texas’ labor force. RECENT TRENDS IN LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS As shown in Table 4.1, the Texas labor force increased by 50.1 percent from 1990 to 2010 compared to an increase of 27.1 percent for the nation. This reflects the 48.0 percent growth of the state’s population over the same time period and the 24.1 percent rate of growth in the population of the United States. The data in Table 4.2 show that the industries and occupations of workforce members are similar for the nation and Texas. The most notable differences in the distributions of employment by occupation and industry are in terms of the larger employment of Texas workers in natural resources (e.g., gas and oil, etc.), construction, and maintenance related occupations and in the agricultural, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (which includes many activities related to gas and oil exploration and development), 46 Chapter 4 construction, and transportation industries. In sum, employment growth in the state has been extensive and concentrated in many of the energy and related industries commonly associated with Texas. CURRENT AND PROJECTED FUTURE PATTERNS OF CHANGE IN THE LABOR FORCE In this section, we examine the future labor force in Texas. Projections of the labor force were made by assuming that 2010 age, sex, and race/ethnicity specific rates of labor force participation will apply in 2050. These rates were multiplied by the number of persons 16 years of age and older by sex and race/ethnicity in years from 2010 to 2050 to obtain the projections discussed below. Tables 4.3 through 4.7 present data on the demographic characteristics of the Texas workforce in 2010 and projected characteristics through 2050. Table 4.3 shows that the workforce consisted of 5,993,750 nonHispanic White workers, 1,388,071 nonHispanic Black workers, 4,280,954 Hispanic workers, and 675,258 nonHispanic Asian and Other workers, representing 48.6, 11.3, 34.7, and 5.4 percent, respectively (see Table 4.5), of the total workforce of 12,338,033 in 2010. Under the scenario assuming that 2000 to 2010 rates of net migration continue, the total labor force will increase to 26,115,127 in 2050 (by 111.7 percent), while the nonHispanic White labor force will decrease to 5,650,708 workers, a decline of 5.7 percent (see Tables 4.3 and 4.4). The nonHispanic Black labor force will increase to 2,390,368 workers (an increase of 72.2 percent from 2010), the number of Hispanic workers will increase to 14,414,381 (an increase of 236.7 percent), and the number of Asian and Other workers will increase to 3,659,670 (an increase of 442.0 percent). In 2050, under this scenario, 21.6 percent of all workers Table 4.1 Civilian Labor Force in the United States and Texas, 1990–2010 Percent Change Civilian Labor Force 1990 2000 2010 1990– 2000 2000– 2010 1990– 2010 United States 123,478,450 137,668,798 156,968,894 11.5 14.0 27.1 Texas 8,219,028 9,830,559 12,338,033 19.6 25.5 50.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1992, 2002, 2011c, 2011e. Table 4.2 Percent of Employed Persons 16 Years of Age or Older in the United States and Texas in 2010 by Occupation and Industry of Employment Percent Percent Occupation/Industry United States Texas Difference Occupation Civilian employed population 16 years and over 139,033,928 11,271,851 — Management, business, science, & arts 35.9 34.3 –1.6 Service 18.0 17.8 –0.2 Sales & office 25.0 25.1 0.1 Natural resources, construction, & maintenance 9.1 11.2 2.1 Production, transportation, and material moving 11.9 11.7 –0.2 Industry Civilian...