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Green Jobs: Who Benefits? : Demographic Forecasting of Job Creation in U. S. Green Jobs Studies / Kyle Gracey
- Michigan State University Press
- Chapter
- Additional Information
171 Green Jobs: Who Benefits? Demographic Forecasting of Job Creation in U.S. Green Jobs Studies KYLE GRACEY More than twenty studies have attempted to assess net job creation through the growth in green jobs (Kammen, Kapadia, and Fripp, 2004; Center for Energy Economics, 2008). None have considered what the demographics of these jobholders might be. Using 2000–9 gender and race percentages from the Current Population Survey for detailed occupation and industry categories, a variety of periods of lagged linear regressions provide forecasts of the race, gender, and Latino and Hispanic ethnicity of these jobs through 2017. Many forecasts show poor statistical quality due to limited observations, especially with multiperiod lags. Despite this, most come close to the employment patterns in the Department of Labor’s Employment Projections for 2018. Applying the forecasts to the categories of jobs considered in the existing green jobs studies, whites and males appear to occupy the majority of green jobs generated. This holds even if we assume an unrealistic, linear extrapolation of the percentage point growth in fractions of jobs held by women and minorities for the types of jobs most produced in these green jobs studies. However, if the green jobs studies are accurate, and even if the forecasts are biased by a dozen percentage points, overall women, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics and Latinos would still gain jobs in most studies considered, though blacks and Asians are relatively more susceptible to no gain in jobs if the percentage forecasts applied here are significantly far above the actual. THE UNIVERSE OF GREEN JOBS STUDIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS OF GREEN JOBS Since 1998, more than twenty (Kammen, Kapadia, and Fripp, 2004; Center for Energy Economics , 2008) studies have attempted to estimate the U.S. employment impact of green jobs (a term discussed in more detail below). Some modeled changes in the number and types of workers in a variety of primarily private sector industry categories and occupation types from new government investments or other policies, particularly the introduction of carbon prices. Some compare these job outputs to those from equivalent investments in traditional outputs, particularly equivalent amounts of electricity produced from coal, oil, or natural gas plants 172| Kyle Gracey compared to renewable energy (which typically excludes nuclear energy) electricity generation . Most attempt to forecast the impact of these investment or policy changes into the near future (see table 1). Others simply compare the current number and occupational categories of workers in facilities producing components necessary to generate “green” products (especially renewable energy) to those employed producing similar, traditional products (again, often coal-, oil-, or natural gas-fueled electricity). Each study uses a different scope to define what jobs are “green.” Some do not use the term at all, instead discussing “clean energy” jobs (those employed in firms producing renewable energy-based electricity). All studies include these renewable energy-based jobs. Some also include positions in mass transit, building and/or automobile energy efficiency improvements, and/or biofuels. The most expansive consider impacts on all types of jobs in the Census Bureau’s Census Occupation Codes or all industries in the Census Industry Classification system (U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). In 2010, the U.S. Department of Labor announced its intent to begin defining and counting green jobs (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010b). Some studies also consider additional characteristics that these green jobs will have or that the jobs will require, most commonly education level (ASES, 2008; White and Walsh, 2008) and wage or household income (Pollin et al., 2008; Pollin, Wicks-Lim, and Garrett-Peltier, 2009). None, however, consider the gender or race of these employees, while, for example, a recent projection of Recovery Act effects does briefly consider gender impacts (Romer and Bernstein, 2009). While gender disparities in jobs producing renewable energy in developing countries have been reviewed widely (see, for example, Skutsch, 2003 and Clancy, Oparaocha, and Roehr, 2004), evaluations and forecasts of green job creation in the United States lack these demographic considerations. Knowledge of which demographics of people will likely benefit most from green jobs may impact the desirability of policies designed to promote green jobs, provide information on which types of green jobs will impact which demographics most, and provide information that may aid in the adoption or termination of policies that impact these job demographics within the context of larger green jobs efforts. MATERIALS AND METHODS Defining the Scope of Green Jobs Studies Taking into consideration the variable definition of green jobs discussed above, and rather than employing...