Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future

Preparing for Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

249 Preparing for Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region There is ample evidence that climate change could have serious repercussions on the economy, ecology, infrastructure, and lifestyles of the Great Lakes region. Sooner or later, residents of the region will have to adapt to current and anticipated conditions caused by changes in temperature , precipitation and other seasonal weather patterns. Adapting to climate change requires people to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty regarding the probability, magnitude, and timing of possible effects. Fortunately , researchers have begun to address how people make decisions in similar circumstances and apply those lessons to the challenges of climate change adaptation. This volume is part of a broader effort by Michigan State University’s Environmental Science and Policy Program (ESPP) to spur information exchange and discussion about these topics among diverse stakeholders in the Great Lakes region. These stakeholders include academic researchers from the social and natural sciences, representatives of state and federal agencies, corporate and small-business interests, farmers and other land managers, and a variety of nongovernmental organizations. This book is comprised of updated papers from a symposium at MSU in March 2007. Follow-up conferences were held in 2008 and 2010. At all of these gatherings , the diverse speakers and attendees participated in discussions of the key messages to be heeded regarding climate change in the Great Lakes region. During the 2009–2010 academic year, MSU, with support from the Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station, held a series of distinguished lecturers on climate change and engaged a group of Climate Policy Fellows in ongoing discussions with each other and with the visiting lecturers to help identify key concerns. The fellows, emerging leaders from state and local government, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations, provided further insights into the kinds of information and activities needed to respond to climate change in the region. They also form the core of an 250| Preparing for Climate Change ongoing network that will help inform discussions of, and shape responses to, climate change in this region and beyond. In this final chapter, we have tried to summarize and synthesize the key concepts that emerged from our discussions of the last five years and that guide our ongoing efforts to link climate change research and scholarship on decision making. This chapter goes beyond a simple retelling of the hypotheses and conclusions of the preceding chapters. Rather, it provides broader conclusions about the nature of climate change in the region, the challenges of adapting to these, and suggestions for how to address these challenges. It builds not only on the materials of the preceding chapters, but on the extensive discussion among decision makers and scientists that were centerpieces of these activities. The key messages are organized into four general categories: (1) the current and anticipated effects of climate change in the Great Lakes region, (2) the relationship between uncertainty and climate-relevant decision making , (3) needs for additional research, and (4) prescriptions for action. We hope these insights can continue to shape a productive dialogue on how stakeholders in the region can address climate change in an effective and efficient manner. We further hope that the concepts listed here can serve as a jumping-off point for discussions in other regions and at other scales of consideration. And of course, we firmly believe that these messages provide the basis for action. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION There is meteorological and biological evidence that climate change is occurring in the Great Lakes region. This evidence includes changed precipitation patterns, reduced freezing of the Great Lakes, and greater variability in seasonal weather. Moreover, many species have shifted their distribution or timing of their migration. These changes have the potential to create major disruptions in ecological systems, and thus the economic and social systems that rely upon them. The economy of the Great Lakes region and well-being of its residents depend heavily on weather-sensitive sectors of agriculture and natural-resources-based recreation. Models indicate that even under the most aggressive mitigation scenarios (i.e., we sharply reduce emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases), our climate will continue to change in the coming decades. This is Preparing for Climate Change| 251 due, in part, to the concentrations of greenhouse gases that have already been released into the atmosphere. In addition, even if popular and political support for renewable energy sources and efficiency continues to grow, there...