Texas Water Atlas

7. Water Prospects

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR water resources in Texas? The population of Texas is expected to expand dramatically from 20.9 million in 2000 to 33.3 million in 2030 and to 45.6 million in 2060 (U.S. Census Bureau 2005; TWDB 2007). Concomitantly, water demand is expected to increase from the current 17 million acre-feet annually to 22 million acre-feet in 2060 (TPWD 2007). Because of the already stretched use of water supplies, a shift will occur away from wasteful uses of water toward those that are more profitable to society. The increased competition for the state’s finite water supply will result in increased government-mandated management and restrictions. Greater competition for the state’s water will force the use of water supplies that traditionally have been too expensive, such as desalinated water, and will drive a stronger statewide philosophy regarding conservation and reuse of existing water supplies (TWDB 2002–2006; SAWS 2004–2006). In projections of major inventory categories of water usage, municipal, steam and electric, and manufacturing will more than double by 2060 and increase far more substantially than the decrease of water usage in irrigation, livestock, and mining (TWDB 2005). Water for recreation will become more important as its economic impact grows. An increasingly urban and affluent population will spend sizable amounts of money on the pleasures of water recreation. As shown in this atlas, droughts and overuse of the state’s water supply have led to increased regulation of its use, thereby restricting landowners’ freedom to utilize water as they desire. The mid-1990s “mini-drought” caused major agricultural losses and provoked the passage of Senate Bill 1 in 1997. This legislation mandated the creation of water management regions and the development of drought management plans by public water suppliers that have more than one hundred customers, both public and private (Texas Water Law Institute 1997). Providing sufficient freshwater inflows to the bays and estuaries is now a legal mandate that must be considered in the process of approving water permits. Even the rule of capture in groundwater law, sacrosanct since the 1904 Houston RR v. East decision, is being interpreted in an evernarrower way. As specified in the 2001 Senate Bill 2, for instance, groundwater conservation districts can now limit the amount the water that “nonhistoric” users withdraw. The increase in demand and the overexploitation of readily available, inexpensive water supplies have resulted in the utilization of water resources that were rejected as recently as the 1980s. Local supplies that cost less than $200 per acre-foot are no longer available. More expensive alternatives, such as interbasin transfers and desalination , have gained currency even though their delivered costs are often greater than $1,000 per acre-foot. Because of the high costs of additional supplies, there has been a new impetus for water conservation and reuse of water. Most implemented water conservation programs, such as low-flow plumbing fixtures and xeriscaping, produce water savings of less than $1,000 per acre-foot. Municipal wastewater can be cleansed for less than $1,000 per acre-foot, which has already enabled its widespread use for landscaping and industrial uses (HDR Engineering 2001). The increasing cost of water has led to a shift from less profitable uses to higher-value uses. In many instances, cities have purchased agricultural water rights outright. Elsewhere, cities have paid for increases in agricultural water use efficiency and have recovered the amount conserved . In conclusion, with the increasing population of Texas and with the state’s limited ability to expand its usable water supplies, water and its uses will become more expensive. The use of nontraditional sources of water, such as from desalination, reuse, and interbasin transfers, will enlarge. Government oversight will likewise intensify, especially in periods of drought. 7 Water Prospects 97 Source: Texas Water Development Board, Water for Texas, 2002. Projected Change in Water Supplies, 2000–2050 Water Management Regions SURFACE WATER GROUNDWATER REUSE OVERALL CHANGE 98 Source: Texas Water Development Board, Water for Texas, 2002. Change in Groundwater Supplies, 2000–2050 MAJOR AQUIFERS MINOR AQUIFERS Note: The 2000–2050 percentage changes indicated for existing sources under drought conditions exclude the Yegua-Jackson Aquifer, which will be included in the next regional water plan. 99 Source: Texas Water Development Board, Water for Texas, 2002. Interbasin Water Transfers Note: Includes only water transfers in effect by 2002...