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Appendix 3.2: Estimation of Annual Interest Group Measures Using the ESA Model As seen in table A3.2, 1990 and 1999 numbers of total health, pharmacy, advocacy, and health finance registrations were regressed on gross state product (GSP) and its square to tap the linear and density-dependent elements of the supply of organized interests as well as on a 1999 indicator and its interactions with GSP and its square. The 1999 indicator and its interactions assess how the intercepts and GSP and GSP-squared estimates changed from 1990 to 1999.1 These estimates were combined with annual data on GSP to generate annual estimates of the total number of health registrations and the proportions arising from our three subguilds. Table A3.2 ESA Model of Lobby Registrations, 1990 and 1999 Dependent Variables Health Health All % ForIndependent Pharmacy Advocacy Finance Health Profit Variables Registrations Registrations Registrations Registrations Registrations GSP 5.714*** 7.269*** 2.986*** 59.567** 0.765 1.214 2.310 0.946 15.896 0.470 GSP2 –3.226** –5.437* –1.203 –44.881** –1.836 1.502 2.752 1.154 19.432 1.522 1999 Dummy 0.863*** 0.515*** 0.092 3.258* –0.080 0.163 0.111 0.112 1.016 0.142 1990 x GSP –0.100 –0.414** –0.036 –2.006 0.092 0.130 0.169 0.107 1.202 0.121 1990 x GSP2 0.082** 0.489** –0.008 2.670* –0.020 0.136 0.233 0.122 1.576 0.149 Constant 2.923 1.509 3.803 25.570 71.769 R-Square 0.582 0.494 0.299 0.530 0.085 N 100 100 100 100 100 ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.10, two-tailed tests, robust standard errors clustered on state. Source: Reprinted with permission from Gray, Lowery, and Godwin (2007b). Estimation of Annual Interest Group Measures Using the ESA Model | 193 Note 1. We do not discuss these models in detail except to note that they work as well as single-year ESA models, but indicate that pharmacy and total health registrations became somewhat less density dependent over the 1990s. It is worth mentioning, however, that when the proportion of for-profit registrations was examined using the same models, as seen in the last column of table A3.2, the results were extremely weak. In short, this proportion has not changed much over almost three decades, which justifies our sole use of this static measure of the opposition to SPAPs, as discussed above. ...

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