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41 CHAP TER 2 The Character of Conflict IAN K. ADAM Adversaries will take the initiative and exploit Alliance vulnerabilities in both the virtual and physical domains of the global commons, including the realms of sea, air, space, and cyberspace. —Allied Command Transformation, “Multiple Futures Project” The nature of conflict is enduring. It can be violent, often uncontrollable, and unpredictable. Moreover, it has evolved over the centuries because of various factors. Adversaries, be they state or nonstate actors, meet new challenges by adopting the weaponry and tactics at hand. Lessons are learned after each successive war, not least by third parties, and then applied to gain advantage in the future. The impact of social media on both domestic and international public opinion is a factor that is shaping conflict and civil unrest in the twenty-first century, as recent dramatic events in North Africa and the Middle East have demonstrated.1 Although nations once viewed high-end, state-on-state warfare as the greatest military threat, an emerging mix of hybrid threats covering every imaginable form of commotion is becoming the greatest challenge. The definitions and scope of hybrid threats are far and wide, but generally they include a mix of irregular, conventional, and high-end asymmetric tactics and weapons used to maximize advantage and exploit any actual or perceived vulnerability in an opponent.2 Even though these means are neither new nor radical, they are being used by an increasing number of capable state and nonstate actors. The dawn of the twenty-first century highlighted the various threats posed by state and nonstate actors, not least those created by sophisticated and highly adaptive terrorist groups capable of transnational crimes over a prolonged period, resilient to state countermeasures and able to exploit the latest technologies. The Character of Conflict 42 However, such threats, when viewed as risks to the global commons, must be examined in all forms, albeit natural or man-made, state or nonstate. Only by comprehending the full range of threats can measures be taken to preserve the commons as resources over which no group or individual possesses exclusive rights but on which nations of the world rely. The potential causes of conflict in the global commons are diverse and complex . Unequal treaties, disputed claims of sovereignty, and competing national interests create friction and tension. In particular, commercial access to the natural resources of the commons will become more highly prized as some nations exhaust their own supplies or fail to meet growing demand. Globalization has encouraged formerly unattainable aspirations in developing countries with the effect that increased cooperation is essential for future progress. The physical and virtual networks in the commons that support globalization require various forms of protection and regulation to avoid disorder. Supplies of energy resources, which are the lifeblood of most economies, usually require access to the global commons in order to be transported. Even regional failures in this regard could have farreaching global consequences.3 A RANGE OF THREATS The threats to the global commons are numerous. Some are new and emerging threats, whereas others have been present in one form or another for time immemorial . The key difference is that today the consequences of some of these threats, exacerbated by advanced information technology coupled with soaring populations, are becoming too large and serious to be ignored by the major nations of the world. The threats emanate from five sources, the first of which is natural disasters. These appear in the form of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, hurricanes, and falling meteors. None can be easily predicted, and even with warning none can be avoided. Their impact on the global commons will vary, as will their ultimate cost in fiscal, environmental, and human terms.4 The four remaining sources—state actors, nonstate actors, state proxies, and individuals— respond to the shift in the balance of power, which is driven by globalization as well as the changing character of war. In an era of multipolar distribution of control, rogue states are viewed with suspicion, although large and economically strong nations often pose the greatest threat to the global commons. Although rogues may ignore international norms and present a greater threat to security, the real danger to the global commons is caused by highly polluting and sizeable resource-consuming nations that use the commons for their own gain. Such advanced nations are often responsible for overfishing, energy consumption that results in pollution and climate change, and disproportionate use of...

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