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C H A P T E R T H R E E Assessing the Role of Sexual Orientation in Elections: LGBT State Legislative Candidates, 1992–2006 On the basis of the discussion and analysis presented in chapter 2, we can now move to a systematic analysis of how a candidate’s sexual orientation influences state legislative election outcomes. Although much of the (especially early) research on female and minority candidates would suggest that LGBT candidates are likely to receive less support than their heterosexual counterparts , the conclusions in chapter 2 indicate that if LGBT candidates are strategic, their sexual orientation is not likely to significantly hinder their election opportunities . Ideally, an analysis of election outcomes would examine both primary and general elections simply because in many state legislative districts the most competitive election is the primary election. My analysis is limited to general state legislative elections from 1992 to 2006 across ten states. However, the interviews with candidates analyzed in chapter 2 suggest that for most candidates, the role of sexual orientation is similar in both primary and general elections. Theory and Previous Research I begin with the simple notion that a candidate’s characteristics influence the level of voter support. These characteristics can include major factors, such as incumbency and party but might also include issue positions, gender, attractiveness, charisma , and sexual orientation. Simply put, voters are likely to take many factors into account when deciding which candidate to support, but in many contests, a candidate’s party and incumbency are likely to be the main factors. In addition, the structural elements of a given race and district are likely to shape the outcome, including a candidate’s spending and the district’s socioeconomic characteristics (Hogan 2001, 2007). Furthermore, because Lax and Phillips (2009) establish that attitudes about LGBT equality vary across states, we might also expect opposition to or support for 66 ASSESSING THE ROLE OF SEXUAL ORIENTATION IN ELECTIONS 67 LGBT candidates to vary over time and across states, and no existing research has attempted to evaluate this potential variation. Thus this chapter examines three questions: What factors influence the likelihood that a LGBT candidate will run in a given state legislative district? Does a candidate’s sexual orientation influence the level of voter support in state legislative elections? And does a candidate’s sexual orientation influence the outcome of state legislative elections? A Candidate’s Sexual Orientation As noted in previous chapters, most research on the impact of a candidate’s sexual orientation on the candidate’s evaluations, success, or electoral margins has been conducted as experimental studies in which fictional voters (usually college students ) evaluated fictional candidates (see Golebiowska 2001; Golebiowska and Thomsen 1999; Herrick and Thomas 1999). One exception is Golebiowska’s (2002) study of LGBT candidates and elected officials. She conducted a survey of these individuals and asked them to assess the impact sexual orientation had in their election contests. Her findings were consistent with similar, experimental research. These studies have provided our first empirical support for accepted anecdotal evidence indicating that the sexual orientation of openly gay and lesbian candidates is a factor in their campaigns (see DeBold 1994; Rayside 1998; Smith and HaiderMarkel 2002). Furthermore, the experimental research supports public opinion findings from chapter 2 that voters do consider a candidate’s sexual orientation when evaluating how a candidate’s positions might actually translate in to realworld voting behavior. However, as chapter 2 makes clear, voters who are likely to vote against a candidate based on sexual orientation are not likely to have much impact on the outcome of the race. Since voters who oppose LGBT candidates are likely to be conservative Republicans, and LGBT candidates are likely to be Democrats or moderate or liberal Republicans, the candidates would be unlikely to receive their voting support regardless of their sexual orientation. Thus, though sexual orientation could play a role in electoral campaigns, its influence on electoral outcomes should be fairly minimal. In addition, the strategic behavior of LGBT candidates should be evident in terms of where and when they choose to run for state legislative office. In particular LGBT candidates should be more likely to run in districts where voter demographics indicate a more liberal populace. Research on State Legislative Elections The other body of literature relevant to this chapter concerns state legislative elections in particular, and state and local elections generally, and comes largely from political science. Approximately forty years of research on the...

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