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4 Assessing the Effects of Policy With the new guiding assumptions presented in chapter 3, we can develop a more complete framework for assessing the ways in which public policies influence educational opportunity (fig. 4.1). For K–12 education, families have a substantial direct influence on educational attainment, but the percentage of the population completing high school and student’s level of achievement in public school also can be influenced by school reform (educational policy) and the social context (social and economic forces) to which children are exposed (e.g., parents’ work settings). For the postsecondary transition, access for qualified students is influenced by students ’ aspirations (career and education) and by policy interventions (tuition and student aid, postsecondary information, and admissions policies). The percentage of the population completing a postsecondary education can be affected by changes in educational environments, labor markets, and public funding of colleges and students. Educational attainment results in personal growth, which influences earnings and congruence . Taxation on increased earnings provides a rationale for public investment and leads to economic development from research. Congruence between education and personal development provides the basis for personal satisfaction with education and a willingness to support higher education (as parents or taxpayers). Educational policies also influence achievement and attainment outcomes . If school reform affects access, it must happen as a result of changes in K–12 outcomes. College-age adults who complete a high school education (or, according to stricter definition, complete a college preparatory curriculum) are prepared to attend college. School reform influences the size of the pool of college-eligible students, not the college participation rate of the college-eligible population.1 Providing encouragement for postsecondary education can expand the college-eligible population by increasing the percentage of high school students who pre54 1 While most of this discussion uses high school graduation as an indicator of college preparedness, chapter 8 uses the stricter definition of college preparation used by NCES (1997a). jhup.stjohn.000-000_jhup.stjohn.000-000.qxd 5/16/14 8:27 AM Page 54 ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF POLICY 55 pare for college and by increasing access. However, logically, encouragement cannot increase enrollment by academically qualified low-income students who cannot afford to attend, unless there is adequate student financial aid. College prices and student aid influence whether low-income students can afford sustained enrollment, after student grants, loans, and work income. Academic policies in college also can influence persistence (completion of college), as well as students’ college choices. The new logical framework for assessing the effects of policy changes on access and equal opportunity in postsecondary education helps distinguish between different types of claims about the linkages between policy changes and enrollment outcomes. In this chapter, I first reconsider the definitions of access and equal opportunity. Then, using the assumptions developed in chapter 3, I present the framework used to assess the impact of financial aid and other interventions on access and equal opportunity (fig. 4.1). Finally, I describe how I have used the framework to make informed judgments about the impact of student aid and other policies on changes in access and equity. Rethinking Academic and Equity Outcomes REDEFINING ACCESS Given the claims that K–12 reforms, postsecondary encouragement, and higher education finances influence access and equity, it is appropriate to define these outcomes in ways that can be used to assess the relative effects of each type of policy intervention. We need to distinguish between two forms of access: financial access and academic access. Financial access is the ability to afford continuous enrollment in lowcost two-year and four-year programs available to applicants based on their ability and prior performance. This definition of the financial access goal incorporates the idea that the financial opportunity to attend college cannot be realized if students do not have the opportunity to persist in the program to which they have academic access. Limiting this goal to low-cost programs constrains the boundaries more narrowly than the broader notion of equal educational opportunity, which also includes the freedom to choose a private college.2 And by focusing on access to both two-year and four-year programs, this definition assumes that students 2 In the current system of student aid, we need to recognize that private colleges are more affordable for their students than public colleges (Paulsen...

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