The Attainment Agenda: State Policy Leadership in Higher Education

1. Improving Higher Education Attainment of All Students: A National Imperative

Chapter 1 Improving Higher Education Attainment of All Students A National Imperative Once a world leader, the United States has fallen behind other nations in the educational attainment of its population. Although the percentage of adults age 45 to 54 who hold at least a baccalaureate degree is higher in the United States than in other Organisation for Economic Co-­ operation and Development (OECD) nations, the United States now ranks below several other nations, including Norway, the Netherlands, Korea, New Zealand, Denmark, and Sweden, in the share of adults age 25 to 34 who hold this credential. While the U.S. invested heavily in the educational attainment of earlier generations, other nations have been investing substantially in their younger populations. Essentially, educational attainment has stalled in the United States, with about 30% of adults in each age cohort holding at least a bachelor’s degree. Over this same period, however , educational attainment has been rising dramatically in some other nations. In Korea, for example, 34% of adults age 25 to 34 now hold at least a baccalaureate degree, up from just 17% of adults age 45 to 54.1 Given trends in educational attainment and population growth, for 55% of U.S. adults age 25 to 64 to have at least an associate’s degree by 2020—the current performance of the best-­performing nation—the United States must increase annual degree production by about 8% per year.2 Yet even an 8% annual increase may be insufficient for the United States to once again lead the world, since this estimate assumes that educational attainment in other countries will not continue to rise. 2   The Attainment Agenda The Importance of Educational Attainment to Continued Prosperity Unless educational attainment improves, workers in the United States will lack the educational skills and training required to meet the workforce demands of a global knowledge economy. Nearly all of the 30 fastest growing occupations (in terms of percentage increases) require at least some college, while nearly all of the 30 occupations experiencing the largest declines require no education beyond high school.3 Drawing on data from the Bureau of Labor of Statistics and research about the continued “upskilling” of current jobs, Anthony Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeffrey Strohl project that 63% of jobs will require education beyond high school in 2018, up from 56% in 1992 and just 28% in 1973.4 This increase in educational requirements is attributable primarily to an expansion in the skills required for existing occupations, with smaller shares of the increase attributable to the creation of new occupations and growth of occupations that already required postsecondary education. Carnevale and colleagues further project that, at the current rate of degree production, the demand for workers with at least an associate’s degree will exceed the supply by 3 million by 2018. Eliminating this deficit will require raising annual degree production by 10%. A focus on higher education’s role in promoting workforce readiness is also necessary because of the need to replace the knowledge and skills of retiring baby boomers, the largest and most educated generation in history.5 Baby boomers , individuals born between 1946 and 1964, represent nearly 40% of the total population; they began reaching typical retirement age in 2011. The retirement of so many educated workers will likely contribute to labor market shortages, as Anderson and Kennedy assert: “While the statistics vary dramatically (estimates of a labor shortage as early as 2010 range from 800,000 workers to almost 10 million), the inescapable fact remains that the ‘baby bust’ generation numbers 11 million fewer bodies than the Boomers. Even with productivity gains, technological changes, outsourcing options, and immigration inflows, there simply may not be enough workers to fill available jobs.”6 Although some argue that the United States suffers from an over-­ supply of college-­educated workers, others counter that the growing wage premium paid to workers who have a college education rather than a high school diploma nullifies this claim.7 In short, if a college education did not improve workers’ productivity, employers would not pay college-­ educated workers higher wages.8 The OECD Improving Higher Education Attainment of All Students   3 agrees that more, not less, education is required. In its 2012 Education at a Glance report, the OECD concludes that recent rapid increases in the educational attainment of most OECD nations have not led to an oversupply of college-­ educated workers, arguing...