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165 6 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Action We first looked at occupational shortages nearly two decades ago (Trutko et al. 1993), and although we continue to define the economic concept of a labor shortage in the same manner, our specific findings on the presence or absence of shortages have changed over the years, and we have somewhat changed our views on how shortage data should be collected and used. It is not surprising that our findings on the existence of shortages have changed, because shortages are dependent on overall economic conditions and, in some instances, market regulation by the government or other parties, and economic conditions are quite different in 2011 than they were in 1993.1 The much looser labor market in the current environment is likely to dampen or eliminate any occupational shortage stemming from rapidly increasing demand. It is the lack of a shortage in the economic sense that has made us realize that what Arrow and Capron (1959) called a “social demand shortage” is of more than academic interest, and this issue is highlighted in the section below. In this concluding chapter, three major topics are addressed. First, the primary overarching findings from the case studies are provided. Next, there is a discussion of the utility of occupational shortage data for various constituencies. Finally, a discussion is presented of how better data on occupational shortages or, more generally, labor market tightness can be developed. CONCLUSIONS FROM THE CASE STUDIES Three overarching conclusions emerged from the case studies of the four occupations analyzed (special education teachers, pharmacists, physical therapists, and home care workers): 1) measuring occupational shortages is difficult, 2) there was no strong evidence of shortages, and In order to view this proof accurately, the Overprint Preview Option must be checked in Acrobat Professional or Adobe Reader. Please contact your Customer Service Representative if you have questions about ἀnding the option. Job Name: -- /344737t 166 Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak 3) for policy purposes it is important to go beyond an economic concept of a shortage. In addition, some occupations with tight labor markets have increased educational standards in recent years. Measuring Occupational Shortages Is Difficult Although it is not difficult to speak conceptually about what an occupational labor shortage is, documenting that a shortage exists is quite another matter. In this project, a shortage was defined as a sustained situation where the number of workers employers would like to hire exceeds the number of workers available at the prevailing wage. There are several reasons why this definition is difficult to apply to actual labor market situations. First, the definition requires measurement of job vacancies for specific occupations. Unfortunately, there is no national job vacancy database. The BLS has conducted the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) since December 2000, but the number of firms included in the survey is too small to generate openings by occupation (BLS 2010e; Clark and Hyson 2001).2 As discussed later in this chapter, vacancy data are useful for a variety of purposes, and about 15 states and roughly the same number of local areas conduct their own vacancy data surveys that do include job vacancies by occupation.3 Second, even if vacancy data were available, it is not a simple matter to define what constitutes a shortage. There will always be some vacancies for jobs as part of the natural labor market process. As is the case for unemployment, a certain proportion of vacancies could be considered as “frictional” and needed for the labor market to function well. Moreover, the length of time that a job is open could be an important factor in determining whether a vacancy is a sign of a shortage or simply an indication of a well-functioning labor market. Finally, just as some occupations typically have higher unemployment rates among workers in the field than other occupations, the level that is indicative of a shortage could and most likely does differ across occupations. Third, the occupational classification system used by the U.S. government , the SOC system, does not correspond to the occupational concepts used by employers. One issue is that the SOC includes 840 detailed occupations, but employers do not necessarily define their jobs to conform to these definitions.4 Two studies by National Research In order to view this proof accurately, the Overprint Preview Option must be checked in Acrobat Professional or Adobe Reader. Please contact your Customer Service Representative if you have questions about ἀnding the option. Job Name: -- /344737t...

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