Opportunity 08: Independent Ideas for America's Next President

Chapter 5: Constructing a Successful China Strategy: Promote Balance and Democratic Ideals in Asia

SUMMARY Historians may ultimately judge the next U.S. president more on how his or her administration managed the rise of China than on how they fought the war on terrorism. The convergence of the Beijing Olympics and the U.S. party conventions in the summer of 2008 will ensure that China policy becomes an issue in the U.S. presidential race. Advocates of containment will call attention to the U.S. trade deficit with China and to the Communist regime’s human rights violations, military buildup, repression of Tibet, and expansion of influence throughout Asia. The presidential nominees will feel pressured to demand a tougher stance toward China, a position that the next president is almost certain to abandon after adjusting to the complexities of U.S.-Chinese relations, repeating a pattern of four of the last five administrations. The rise of China presents a maze of contradictions: the Chinese people are gaining economic freedoms but not political or religious liberties; China is expanding its participation and responsibilities in international organizations and multilateral diplomacy but is using that new influence to put obstacles in the way of international pressures to reform at home; and the greatest contradiction of all is that China holds more U.S. Treasury bonds than does any other nation, yet China continues a focused military buildup to defeat U.S. air and naval power in the Pacific. 51 Constructing a Successful China Strategy Promote Balance and Democratic Ideals in Asia MICHAEL GREEN 5 The next president would be wise to look at China policy in terms of using a comprehensive toolkit of national power to shape a positive role for Beijing, while hedging against the possibility that China’s leaders will instead pursue a negative path. The first part of this toolkit is bilateral. The next administration will need to demonstrate a readiness to continue strengthening and expanding ties with China, in spite of domestic pressures, while signaling clearly to Beijing that progress is necessary in all five areas of concern to the American people: economic openness, China’s defense posture, human rights, Taiwan, and policy toward dangerous regimes such as Sudan or Iran. Presidents who try to compromise on one of these five areas to make progress on another inevitably harm U.S. interests in Asia and the longerterm prospects for stable U.S.-Chinese relations. The second part of the toolkit is regional. There is no question that China is increasing its influence and soft power in Asia, but there has also been pronounced balancing behavior against China by key states such as Japan, India, Singapore, and Indonesia. No country is interested in joining a united front to contain China, since the Chinese economy is so critical to the success of the entire region, but all seek a strong U.S. presence as well. The next president will need to energize these regional relationships to maintain a strong balance of power in Asia that favors engagement and cooperation with Beijing on terms that reinforce openness and stability. The third part of the toolkit is to mobilize ideas. Although much has been made about a new “Beijing consensus”—that economic development is more important than political liberty—the reality in Asia is that democratic principles have taken strong root in the identity of nations as diverse as Japan, Indonesia, and India. U.S. soft power in Asia should not be measured in the popularity of America alone, but also of American ideals. The key for the next administration will be to support the champions for democracy and good governance within the region, rather than appearing to impose these ideas from outside. Presidential candidates should be thinking now about a China policy based on hard-headed realism tempered by idealism, rather than waiting until after taking office. We are poised for success in U.S.-Chinese relations , if we understand all the dimensions of the task. CONTEXT The two most important variables in the future of the international system are the battle for the heart of Islam and the rise of 52 MICHAEL GREEN Chinese power and influence. Although the Iraq War now focuses the United States’ attention on the former, future historians may assess the latter as more consequential. Regardless of its historical import, the China issue will not stay quiet for long. In August 2008—during the run-up to the national party conventions in the United States—world attention will...