Managing India's Nuclear Forces

Front Cover

India฀is฀now฀enmeshed฀in฀the฀deterrence฀game— actively฀with฀its฀traditional฀adversary฀Pakistan,฀ and฀potentially฀with฀China.฀At฀the฀same฀time฀it฀ strategic฀technologies.฀In฀order฀to฀deal฀with฀ these฀developments฀safely฀and฀wisely,฀the฀nation฀ needs฀a฀much฀more฀sophisticated฀and฀multidisciplinary ฀understanding฀of฀the฀strategic,฀ technological,฀operational,฀and฀cost฀issues฀ involved฀in฀nuclear฀matters.฀ In฀this฀important฀book,฀Indian฀strategic฀analyst฀ Verghese฀Koithara฀explains฀and฀evaluates฀India’s฀ nuclear฀force฀management,฀encouraging฀a฀broad฀ public฀conversation฀that฀may฀act฀as฀a฀catalyst฀for฀ positive฀change฀before฀the฀subcontinent฀experiences฀ unthinkable฀carnage.฀฀ The฀defense฀management฀system฀of฀a฀nuclear฀power฀ absolutely฀needs฀to฀be฀sound฀and฀thorough.฀In฀ addition฀to฀the฀considerable฀demands฀of฀managing฀ its฀nuclear฀forces,฀it฀also฀must฀control฀conventional฀ forces฀in฀a฀manner฀that฀forestalls฀nuclear฀escalation฀ nuclear฀forces฀without฀enhancing฀deterrence฀is฀ dangerous฀and฀should฀be฀avoided.฀India’s฀nuclear฀ force฀management฀system฀is฀grafted฀onto฀a฀woefully฀ inadequate฀overall฀system฀of฀defense฀management.฀ Koithara฀dissects฀all฀of฀these฀issues฀and฀suggests฀a฀ way฀forward,฀drawing฀on฀recent฀developments฀in฀ deterrence฀theory฀around฀the฀world. Verghese฀Koithara฀is฀an฀independent฀strategic฀ analyst฀whose฀previous฀books฀include฀Crafting฀Peace฀ in฀Kashmir:฀Through฀a฀Realist฀Lens฀and฀Society,฀State฀ and฀Security:฀The฀Indian฀Experience.฀He฀retired฀from฀ the฀Indian฀Navy฀as฀a฀Vice฀Admiral฀in฀1998. Washington,฀D.C. www.brookings.edu Jacket฀design฀by฀Silika฀Mohapatra Managing฀India’s฀Nuclear฀Forces Verghese฀Koithara฀discusses฀in฀depth,฀with฀expertise฀and฀insight,฀the฀extremely฀demand ing ฀and฀complex฀issues฀involved฀in฀owning฀a฀nuclear฀arsenal฀and฀in฀projecting฀deterrence.฀ These฀issues฀can฀be฀ignored,฀as฀is฀being฀done฀today,฀only฀at฀serious฀peril฀to฀the฀country.฀The฀ book฀should฀be฀compulsory฀reading฀for฀current฀and฀future฀members฀of฀parliament;฀all฀those฀ who฀aspire฀to฀political฀leadership;฀middle฀and฀senior฀level฀government฀functionaries฀in฀civil,฀ ion ”;฀and,฀importantly,฀citizens฀who฀are฀interested฀in฀their฀own฀security฀and฀wellbeing.฀ —฀Arun฀Singh,฀Former฀Minister฀of฀State฀for฀Defence฀of฀India This฀book฀is฀a฀brilliant฀contribution฀to฀the฀literature฀on฀how฀states฀manage฀weapons฀of฀ mass฀destruction฀in฀such฀a฀way฀as฀to฀maximise฀security฀and฀minimise฀the฀risk฀that฀they฀will฀ be฀used฀inadvertently฀or฀in฀error.฀India฀now฀lacks฀a฀credible฀theory฀of฀how฀nuclear฀weapons฀ might฀be฀used฀other฀than฀as฀an฀instrument฀of฀national฀pride฀and฀propaganda.฀Admiral฀ Koithara฀shows฀how฀India฀should฀move฀from฀being฀a฀declared฀Nuclear฀Weapons฀State,฀to฀ becoming฀a฀state฀with฀a฀serious฀nuclear฀strategy฀and฀organisational฀capacity.฀This฀book฀is฀ required฀reading฀for฀India’s฀strategic฀community,฀and฀those฀who฀seek฀to฀understand฀the฀ direction฀of฀India’s฀nuclear฀programme฀for฀the฀next฀several฀decades. —฀Stephen฀P.฀Cohen,฀Senior฀Fellow,฀Brookings฀Institution,฀Washington,฀D.C. In฀his฀book,฀Verghese฀Koithara฀casts฀a฀laser-sharp฀beam฀to฀illuminate฀the฀Stygian฀dark฀of฀ India’s฀strategic฀domain.฀With฀an฀unerring฀instinct฀he฀not฀only฀picks฀out฀the฀debilitating฀ that฀guide฀India’s฀national฀security฀decision฀making.฀Koithara’s฀spotlight฀on฀the฀“barren”฀ and฀mistrustful฀relationship฀between฀India’s฀political฀leadership฀and฀the฀armed฀forces,฀and฀ the฀total฀exclusion฀of฀the฀latter฀from฀national฀security฀planning฀could฀not฀have฀been฀better฀ timed.฀His฀compelling฀exploration฀of฀India’s฀nuclear฀deterrent฀mercilessly฀holds฀up฀a฀mirror ฀before฀the฀emperor.฀ —฀Admiral฀Arun฀Prakash,฀Former฀Chief฀of฀Naval฀Staff฀of฀India Despite฀India’s฀1998฀declaration฀that฀it฀was฀now฀a฀Nuclear฀Weapons฀State,฀its฀long฀march฀ Managing฀India’s฀ Nuclear฀Forces฀shows฀why.฀It฀argues฀persuasively฀that฀possessing฀nuclear฀weapons฀may฀actu ally ฀subvert฀deterrence฀if฀that฀possession฀is฀not฀accompanied฀by฀a฀range฀of฀complementary฀ procedural,฀institutional,฀and฀ideational฀investments฀in฀an฀environment฀where฀both฀China฀ and฀Pakistan฀are฀developing฀sophisticated฀nuclear฀arsenals.฀While฀students฀of฀nuclear฀deter all ,฀mandatory฀reading฀for฀all฀policy-makers฀in฀New฀Delhi. —฀Ashley฀J.฀Tellis,฀Senior฀Associate, Carnegie฀Endowment฀for฀International฀Peace,฀Washington,฀D.C. This฀is฀excellent฀research฀by฀an฀outstanding฀practitioner฀ in฀the฀intricate฀world฀of฀nuclear฀policies฀in฀South฀Asia.฀It฀ becomes฀more฀important฀as฀it฀comes฀from฀the฀perspective฀ of฀India,฀a฀new฀nuclear฀weapon฀power฀with฀all฀the฀ challenges฀of฀learning฀anew฀about฀deterrence.฀฀It฀highlights฀ the฀challenges฀and฀the฀structures฀needed฀to฀stabilise฀the฀ balance.฀It฀exposes฀the฀issues฀that฀have฀been฀swept฀under฀ the฀carpet฀in฀the฀initial฀euphoria฀of฀breaking฀the฀nuclear฀ embargo,฀providing฀in฀the฀process฀a฀practical฀guide฀to฀ strategic฀equation.฀A฀must-read฀for฀all฀strategic฀thinkers฀ and฀professionals฀alike,฀not฀just฀in฀South฀Asia฀and...