Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War

Notes

1. Dan Ephron,“Iraq: A Growing Body Count,”Newsweek, October 23, 2006, p. 8; Rebecca Goldin,“The Science of Counting the Dead,”STATS at George Mason University, October 17, 2006, available at http://www.stats.org/stories/the_science_ct_dead_oct17_06.htm. In October 2006, an article in The Lancet argued that Iraqi deaths greater than the pre-war invasion mortality rates ranged from 393,000 to 943,000, with the most likely estimate 655,000 “excess” deaths as a result of the violence that has prevailed since the fall of Saddam’s regime. See Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, Les Roberts,“Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample Survey,” The Lancet, 368/9545, October 21, 2006, pp. 1421–28. However, while irrelevant to our study, we note that the results of this article have been disputed by a number of experts. See John Bohannon, “Iraqi Death Estimates Called Too High; Methods Faulted,” Science, 314/5798, October 20, 2006, pp. 396–97; Steven E. Moore, “655,000 War Dead?” Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2006, p. A.20; Fred Kaplan,“Number Crunching: Taking Another Look at the Lancet’s Iraq Study,” Slate, October 20, 2006, available at http://www.slate.com/id/2151926/; Malcom Ritter,“Mixed Reviews of Iraq Death Toll Study,” Associated Press, October 11, 2006. Finally, an organization called Iraq Body Count has been critical of the studies in The Lancet. See Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty,“Reality Checks: Some Responses to the Latest Lancet Estimates,” Iraq Body Count Press Release, 16 October 2006, available at http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ press/pr14.php; and Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty, Notes 203 1379-1 ch09 notes 4/16/07 2:31 PM Page 203 “Speculation Is No Substitute: A Defence of Iraq Body Count,” Iraq Body Count, April 2006, available at http://www.iraqbodycount.org/editorial/defended/. 2. Officially, the UNHCR counted 914,000 displaced Iraqis between April 2003 and October 2006. However, when announcing the latest figures, the chief spokesman for UNHCR also noted “The overall number is likely to be much higher.” See “914,000 Fled Homes, U.N. Agency Says,” Washington Times, October 21, 2006, p. 7; Hassan Fattah, “Uneasy Havens Await Those Who Flee Iraq,” New York Times, December 8, 2006; UNHCR, “UNHCR Briefing Notes: Iraq Displacement,” available at http://www.unhcr.org/news/NEWS/454b1f8f2.html. 3. For a penetrating study of the sectarian violence in Iraq and its impact on the population , including the rise in displaced persons, see Ashraf al-Khalidi and Victor Tanner, “Sectarian Violence: Radical Groups Drive Internal Displacement in Iraq,” An Occasional Paper of the Brookings Institution–University of Bern Project on Internal Displacement, October 2006, available at http://brookings.edu/fp/projects/idp/ 200610_DisplacementinIraq.htm.We note that this study makes no estimate of the total number of displaced Iraqis. It does cite the official Ministry of Trade figures for internally displaced Iraqis as 234,000 in September 2006. Al-Khalidi and Tanner also note on p. 21 “These Ministry of Trade figures, however, may seriously underestimate the overall problem of displacement.” The study makes no estimate of the numbers of externally displaced Iraqis. However, the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants estimated in June 2006 that 889,000 Iraqis had left the country as refugees since 2003. See U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants,“USCRI Releases World Refugee Survey 2006: Risks and Rights,” June 14, 2006, available at http://www.refugees.org/newsroomsub.aspx?id= 1622. 4. Gethin Chamberlain and Aqeel Hussein, “I No Longer Have Power to Save Iraq from Civil War,” Warns Shia Leader,” Sunday Telegraph (London), September 3, 2006. 5. See for instance Anne Garrels,“Violence Plagues Iraq, Despite Constitution Breakthrough ,” National Public Radio, Morning Edition, October 14, 2005; Sabrina Tavernise, “Sectarian Hatred Pulls Apart Iraq’s Mixed Towns,”New York Times, November 20, 2005; Sabrina Tavernise,“Many Iraqis Look To Gunmen As Protectors,”New York Times, October 21, 2006, p. 1. 6. See Kenneth M. Pollack, “The Right Way: Seven Steps toward a Last Chance in Iraq,” Atlantic Monthly, March 2006, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/ doc/prem/200603/iraq. Also see Kenneth M. Pollack and the Iraq Strategy Working Group of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, A Switch in Time: A New Strategy for America in Iraq (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 2006), available at http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/analysis/20060215_iraqreport.htm; and Daniel Byman, “Five Bad Options...