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Chapter 2: Civil Wars and Spillover
- Brookings Institution Press
- Chapter
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By any definition Iraq is already in a state of civil war. However , it is not yet at a Lebanese or Bosnian level of all-out civil war violence and differences in degree matter. The turmoil in Haiti, for instance, can be labeled a civil war, but relatively few people have died or been driven from their homes. Moreover, not all civil wars have the same strategic impact. Strife in Nepal and Sudan has been bloody, but it has occurred in peripheral regions and so does not affect U.S. and Western strategic interests directly, no matter how much it may tug at our heartstrings. All civil wars are terrible, but the kind of all-out civil war that Iraq appears headed for typically involves not only massive bloodshed and even larger refugee flows, but also the collapse of government institutions, the disintegration of the armed forces, the spreading of sectarian and ethnic warfare to much of the country, and an overall atmosphere of anarchy. The problem with Iraq is that if the current conflict escalates to all-out civil war, it may prove to be that rare combination of rampant violence in a strategically and economically crucial region. And the trends augur poorly. Inter- and intracommunal carnage claims more and more lives there with each passing month. 2 Civil Wars and Spillover 17 1379-1 ch02 4/16/07 11:36 AM Page 17 Anywhere from 50,000 to 150,000 (and perhaps more) Iraqis have already died as a result of violence since the U.S. occupation of Iraq began, including terrorist attacks, sectarian killings, and deaths from criminal activity.1 The summer of 2006 has seen a surge in violence. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 1.8 million Iraqis had fled the country by November 2006, at least one million of them since April 2003.2 While most still cling to the hope that their lives will improve, the numbers are diminishing. The sense of being an “Iraqi,” as opposed to a member of a particular religious, ethnic, or tribal group, is declining too. Militias continue to proliferate as average Iraqis grow fearful of the multiplying reports of ethnic cleansing.3 The chaos and violence are discrediting moderate Iraqi leaders. In September 2006 the Shi’i leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani declared he would focus exclusively on religious matters because he felt he could no longer restrain his followers or otherwise prevent Iraq from sliding into civil war.4 Sistani has long been a voice of moderation in Iraq, and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman dubbed him an “indispensable man” with regard to Iraq’s future. As voices like Sistani’s fall silent, ferocious rejectionists like Muqtada as-Sadr gain new adherents daily—not because Iraqis like what he stands for, but simply because he offers protection and basic services that the Americans and the Iraqi government have failed to provide.5 Iraq has also proven a magnet for Sunni jihadists who admire Usama Bin Laden, and they have employed unprecedented numbers of suicide bombings with devastating effect. The wealthy, including those recently enriched by graft and organized crime, are sending their money out of the country as quickly as they can, along with their wives and children. The only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into a Lebanon- or Bosnia-style maelstrom is 140,000 American troops, and even they are merely slowing the fall at this point. Unless the United States and the new government of Iraq take dramatic action to reverse the current trends, the internecine conflict there could easily worsen to the point where it spirals into a full-scale civil war that threatens not only Iraq, but also its neighbors throughout the oil-rich Persian Gulf. This degeneration into all-out civil war may still not be inevitable (although if the point of no return has not already passed, it is doubtless drawing near), and we have laid out in considerable detail elsewhere our 18 civil wars and spillover 1379-1 ch02 4/16/07 11:36 AM Page 18 [34.227.191.136] Project MUSE (2024-03-28 10:13 GMT) visions of alternative courses for the United States to pursue.6 We desperately hope to see this scenario averted, and we are heartened by signs that some American and Iraqi officials, particularly in the U.S. military, recognize the grave problems we face in Iraq and are exploring options to change course...