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Deforestation is one of the underlying causes of current levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has been estimated that about 40 percent of CO2 emissions over the last 200 years have been from changes in land use and land management, most of which have been deforestation.1 The remaining forest ecosystems still store an estimated 638 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon (measured to a soil depth of 30 cm), 283 Gt of which is in the forest biomass alone. This is a signi ficant amount of carbon—more than there is carbon in the atmosphere.2 Although rates of net deforestation are decreasing because of increased reforestation , gross deforestation (that is, deforestation only, not taking into account reforestation ) averages 13 million hectares per year and does not appear to be decreasing. Rates of deforestation and modification of primary forests are also alarmingly high, at 6 million hectares per year, and do not appear to be decreasing either.3 If these rates continue, approximately 15 percent of remaining forests will be lost by 2050, and approximately 70 percent will be lost within the next 200 years.4 This rate is higher for primary forests, with 19 percent expected to be lost or modified by 2050 and 84 percent expected to be lost or modified within the next 200 years if current deforestation rates continue.5 However, this loss is not expected to be uniform across all countries. According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, forest area in industrialized regions will increase between 2000 and 2050 by 60 million to 230 million hectares.6 At the same time, the forest area in developing countries is expected to decrease by 200 million to 490 million hectares.7 This means that Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries: An Introduction robert o’sullivan 13 179 between 10 and 22 percent of forests in developing countries can be expected to be lost by 2050.8 Some of these areas are already under threat from deforestation, but others may have seen little or no deforestation historically. What does this deforestation mean for the climate? With up to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming from tropical deforestation, this sector is a significant source of GHG emissions and one of the underlying drivers of climate change.9 If these emissions are not reduced, they have the potential to undercut reductions in energy-related and industrial GHG emissions and frustrate the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).10 GHG emissions currently produced by deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia alone are estimated to equal four-fifths of the emission reductions generated under the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period.11 If the global community is serious about trying to prevent significant climate change, then emissions from deforestation need to be addressed as a priority. The effects of deforestation should not be measured only in terms of global climate change. Deforestation has significant negative effects on soil quality, biodiversity , local livelihoods, and indigenous communities. It destabilizes local climate and weather by disrupting historical hydrological cycles, albedo, and large-scale circulation patterns. On the other hand, forest conservation, sustainable management, planting, and rehabilitation of forests can mitigate CO2 emissions though carbon sequestration, protect biodiversity, and deliver a range of socioeconomic benefits.12 Deforestation under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol are principally concerned with addressing GHG emissions in order to avoid serious anthropogenic interference in global climate. The focus of their instruments is on accounting for GHG emissions (including emission reductions and removals), and any consideration of forests and deforestation must take place within this framework. Although emissions from fossil fuels and industrial gases can be accurately monitored, accounted for, and reduced by undertaking certain activities, dealing with deforestation within this framework creates significant complexity, because the sources of emissions are not completely analogous. For example, monitoring and accounting for reduced emissions from a coal-fired power plant through an activity such as switching to a fuel with a lower emission factor (such as natural gas) is simple. The quantity of emissions generated under a coal-fired baseline is easily calculated , as are the emissions generated under the new baseline of an alternative fuel. If the switch to the new fuel was not part of the power plant’s business-as-usual plans, then the difference between the two baselines is the amount of the emis180 robert o’sullivan [18.217.73.187...

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