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Chapter 13 Who Will Lead the Realignment? By mid-2007, Gallup survey research data suggested that the nation had reached a crisis in civic confidence of historic proportions . Reflecting frustration with the inability of the new Democratic leadership in Congress to accomplish more in ending the war in Iraq and the antipathy of the Republican base to the GOP congressional leadership ’s support for a bipartisan proposal on immigration, the job approval rating for that institution sunk to 14 percent, the lowest ever recorded in modern-day polling. President Bush’s job approval ratings also continued to drop, damaging, as columnist David Broder put it, the “brand of the entire Republican Party” (“Meet the Press” 2007). In June 2007, just 19 percent of the public thought the country was headed in the right direction, close to the all-time low of 14 percent, recorded almost exactly fifteen years earlier (McKinnon 2007). In their book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (1997), William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted with uncanny accuracy exactly this scenario occurring at precisely this time period. Reflecting back on the eighty-year cycles of American history, they point out that, ironically, hostility to the nation’s political system has always reached its peak right after a decade when the country is richer, more technologically sophisticated , and potentially more powerful militarily than ever before. In both 1860 and 1932, the country was pushed to examine its fundamental social contract by the force of a large and diverse generation, when a catalytic event triggered the two most significant political crises the country has ever faced. Strauss and Howe further predicted that during the first decade or so of the twenty-first century a crisis of similar magnitude would once again produce a “sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the 220 Chap-13.qxd 11/23/07 4:41 PM Page 220 long partisan tug-of-war, ending the era of split government” (Strauss and Howe 1997, 275). As in the past, how the crisis is resolved and how this next realignment turns out will depend a great deal upon the leadership of whoever is elected president in 2008. In the two previous civic realignments of 1860 and 1932, the country found among the various contenders for the presidency of the United States leaders who eventually became two of the country’s greatest presidents. As America enters a critical turning point in its history, the 2008 presidential campaign will provide the electorate with a chance to find the next Lincoln or FDR among the candidates—someone who possesses the combination of personal qualities and political skills that will be required to lead the country through our next civic realignment. Lincoln’s and FDR’s Leadership Changed America Even if the future is more kind to the country than Strauss and Howe’s theory of generational cycles would suggest,the nation would still be well served to look for the qualities of a Lincoln or FDR to lead it. Lincoln’s presidency was the beginning of many decades of electoral dominance for the Republican Party. His leadership saved the Union, at last ended the moral dilemma of slavery, and firmly established the United States as a centralized nation rather than a loose collection of states. Roosevelt’s election ended seventy years of almost continuous Republican rule, leading to a period of nearly four decades during which Democrats won most elections and controlled government at the national level. In addition Roosevelt reoriented the role of American government in society and in the economy and the role of America in the world. Both Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt held office at times of obvious national crisis and trauma, the former as the country itself splintered and the latter during America’s greatest economic and foreign crises. Once in office, the scale and scope of the challenges they faced provided Lincoln and FDR major opportunities for great achievements—leading some historians to suggest their greatness was driven by circumstance, not by personal characteristics. Presidential historian Robert Dallek has asked rhetorically if the presidents of the 1840s and 1850s couldn’t have done more than they did to deal with the issues of slavery and sectionalism. Who Will Lead the Realignment? 221 Chap-13.qxd 11/23/07 4:41 PM Page 221 [18.222.67.251] Project MUSE (2024-04-25 07:29 GMT...

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