Ethnonationalist Conflict in Postcommunist States: Varieties of Governance in Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Kosovo

Notes

Notes Introduction: Applying Path-Dependence, Timing, and Sequencing in Conflict Analysis 1. Republic of Kosovo Assembly, Kosovo Declaration of Independence. 2. Karon, ‘‘New Violence in Kosovo.’’ 3. Voice of America, ‘‘Kosovo Violence Threatens Serbia’s EU Aspirations.’’ 4. Bilevsky, ‘‘Fears of New Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia.’’ 5. European Forum, ‘‘Building of Church in Macedonia Leads to Ethnic Clashes.’’ 6. RFE/RL, ‘‘Albanian, Macedonian Presidents Call for Calm After Murders.’’ 7. Novinite, May 24, 2011. 8. I use the designation ‘‘Kosovo’’ because this wording has gained traction in earlier works on international affairs. Kosova is the designation of the new state-information , which to date has not been fully recognized internationally. 9. For exceptions see Saideman and Ayres, For Kin or Country; Jenne, Ethnic Bargaining ; Toft, The Geography of Ethnic Violence; Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence , and Resistance and Rebellion; Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life. 10. Fearon and Laitin, ‘‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,’’ 88. 11. Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen, quoted in Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War, 16. 12. On selection bias see King, Keohane, and Verba, Designing Social Inquiry; Brady and Collier, Rethinking Social Inquiry. 13. On microdynamics of conflicts see Tilly, The Politics of Collective Violence; Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War; Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion; Fujii, Killing Neighbors; Stroschein, Ethnic Struggle. 14. Gurr, Peoples Versus States, 71; Davenport, ‘‘The Weight of the Past’’; Gurr and Moore, ‘‘Ethnopolitical Rebellion.’’ 15. Novinite, ‘‘Macedonians, Albanians Clash.’’ 16. ‘‘International community’’ designates states and governmental and NGOs not bound by kin to the majority or minority. 17. Pierson, Politics in Time; ‘‘Big, Slow Moving and Invisible’’; ‘‘Increasing Returns ’’; ‘‘Not Just What But When.’’ 18. Tilly, Big Structures, Large Processes, Huge Comparisons, 14. 232 Notes to Pages 7–11 19. Collier and Collier, Shaping the Political Arena, 27. 20. Capoccia and Kelemen, ‘‘The Study of Critical Junctures,’’ 348. 21. On critical junctures as choice points see Mahoney, ‘‘Path-Dependent Explanations ,’’ 113; on the difficulty of altering trajectories see Pierson, Politics in Time, 135. 22. Pierson, ‘‘Increasing Returns,’’ 251–52. 23. Pierson, ‘‘Not Just What But When,’’ 74. 24. Mahoney, ‘‘Path Dependence in Historical Sociology,’’ 526–27. 25. Thelen, ‘‘Timing and Temporality,’’ 103; on revolutions: Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions; Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion; on democratization and regime change: Mahoney, The Legacies of Liberalism; Collier and Collier, Shaping the Political Arena; Luebbert, Liberalism, Fascism, or Social Democracy; on institutional development: Hall and Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism; Ziblatt, Structuring the State; Thelen, How Institutions Evolve; Karl, The Paradox of Plenty; Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State? 26. On a recent proposition to use historical institutionalism in conflict analysis see Stroschein, Ethnic Struggle, 23846. 27. Collier and Sambanis, ‘‘Understanding Civil War,’’ 5. 28. Ruane and Todd, ‘‘The Roots of Intense Ethnic Conflict’’; Hassner, ‘‘The Path to Intractability’’; rejoinder by Goddard, Pressman, and Hassner, ‘‘Time and the Intractability of Territorial Disputes’’; Ruane and Todd, The Dynamics of Conflict in Northern Ireland. 29. Arifi, ‘‘Spontaneous Interethnic Order,’’ 564. 30. Laver and Shepsle, ‘‘Events, Equilibria, and Government Survival.’’ On rather exceptional problem-driven research analyzed through rational choice games, see Bates et al., Analytic Narratives. 31. Streeck and Thelen, Beyond Continuity; Thelen, How Institutions Evolve; Crouch and Farrell, ‘‘Breaking the Path for Institutional Development’’; For conflict analysis see Stroschein, Ethnic Struggle. 32. Mahoney and Rueschemeyer, ‘‘Comparative Historical Analysis,’’ 11. 33. Pierson, ‘‘Not Just What But When,’’ 79. 34. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 85. 35. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War, 19. 36. Ibid.; Valentino, Final Solutions; Davenport, Paths to State Repression. 37. Przeworski and Teune, The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry. 38. George and Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development, 206. 39. Ibid., 157–63. 40. Ibid., 137. 41. I used sources primarily in Bulgarian, English, and Macedonian, but occasionally Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian, German, and Italian. 42. Crawford, East Central European Politics Today, 164–69. 43. Schmitter, ‘‘Peoples and Boundaries in the Process of Democratization,’’ 6. Notes to Pages 11–17 233 44. This is a variation of V. P. Gagnon’s argument developed in the context of conflicts in Serbia and Croatia, The Myth of Ethnic War. 45. Ibid., 7, 52–86. 46. Gurr, Why Men Rebel; Peoples Versus States. 47. Marshall and Gurr, Peace and Conflict; Walter, ‘‘Information, Uncertainty, and Decision to Secede,’’ 122; Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence. 48. Basic premises of statehood—internal legal or domestic sovereignty—can potentially...