American Diversity: A Demographic Challenge for the Twenty-first Century

9. Sixty-five Plus in the U.S.A.

Chapter 9 Sixty-five Plus in the U.S.A. Cynthia M. Taeuber 243 Diversity and growth—those are two words that describe America’s elderly population. We tend to say “the elderly” as if they were all the same. But they are not. In 1990, there were over 31 million elderly Americans, people aged 65 or older. By 2000 the elderly numbered 35 million. The experience of aging is different for different groups. Elderly men and women tend to have quite different life circumstances, for example. Some older people, especially oldest old single women, tend to have significant health and financial problems . Others, especially married couples, tend to be more economically secure and healthy. “The elderly,” like other age groups, are mixed in their needs, abilities, and resources. Growth is another aspect of the elderly population. America has been a nation of youth. In colonial times, half the population was under age 16. Most never reached old age. Now, America is an aging society. In 1990 and 2000, less than one in four Americans were under age 16. Half were 33 or older. The elderly population is growing, especially the oldest old, the term commonly used for those aged 80 or 85 and over (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990).1 Numerical Growth The United States has been riding a demographic roller coaster since World War II. In the 1930s the United States had a baby bust, in the 1950s a baby boom, in the 1970s a baby bust, and in the 1980s a baby boomlet (also called the baby boom echo) (Figure 9.1). The absolute sizes and relative difference in the age groups relate to the kinds of activities and the needs of our population. Figure 9.1 U.S. Population Pyramids 1990a, 2010b, 2050b (Population in millions). a U.S. Bureau of the Census 1990 Census of Population and Housing. Series CPH 74 “Modified and Actual Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin Data.” b U.S. Bureau of the Census, Jennifer C. Day, “Population Projections of the United States: 1992 to 2050,” Current Population Reports, P25-1092, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1992 (middle series projections). In 1990 and 2000, we had about as many children age 10 and under as we had persons aged 60 or older. The baby boom, those born from 1946 to 1964 (aged 26 to 44 in 1990), has moved into middle age. They are one-third of the American population. They have mostly finished with schooling now, are in the labor force, and are raising families. The baby bust is completing high school and are entering college and the labor force (born 1965 to 1975). One in eight Americans is 65 years or older. That’s just under 35 million people. Figure 9.1 tells us about the demographic forces that bear on individual and public-policy choices. Most babies will survive to their elder years, but there are differences in life expectancy. Based on the mortality experience of 1990, life expectancy at birth was 79 years for White women, but it is only 67 years for Black men. Back in 1900, average life expectancy was about 49 years2 . As life expectancy has increased, issues about the quality of life of older people face us. With increasing life expectancy, we can expect to see more long-term chronic illness, disability , and dependency. As a result, it is increasingly likely that more people in their 50s and 60s will have surviving frail relatives who will need care. The growth of the oldest old population is stunning. One in 31 (Day, 1992) Americans was 80 years or older in 2000; by 2050, at least 1 in 12 could be 80 years or older3 . Three million Americans were 85 years or older in 1990 and 4.2 million in 2000. One million were 90 or older compared to almost 1.5 million a decade later. Over 50,000 people reported in the 2000 Census that they were aged 100 years or older, nearly triple the number in 1980. In 1990, four in five centenarians were women. Four in five were White. The oldest old are projected to be the fastest growing part of the elderly population well into the next century. We will experience steady but undramatic growth of the total elderly population from 1990 to 2010. It is the year 2011 when the first of the baby...