Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines

Index

195 Index Page numbers in italics refer to tables and figures. account evidence, 128, 134, 138 activities. See parts of mechanisms, activities actor / microlevel, 31, 32, 40–43, 54, 64 archival observations, 125, 136–38 Bayesian logic, 76, 77,82, 83, 85, 86, 88, 91, 101, 104, 107, 120, 122, 128, 131, 153 Bayesian updating, 96, 97, 101 empirical predictions (case-specific), 14, 101, 102, 104 and empirical testing, 100, 119 formula, 83–85, 87 level of confidence in hypothesis after test / posterior, 83–86, 95, 96, 98, 99, 102, 104, 122, 123, 125, 127–29, 152 likelihood ratio, 84, 87, 89, 90, 96, 97, 101, 104, 106, 107, 127, 129 logic of inference, 7, 69, 76, 78, 85, 87, 91, 120, 122, 131, 153 posterior probability, 83–86, 95, 96, 98, 99, 102, 104, 122, 123, 125, 127– 29, 152 predicted evidence, 88, 89, 90, 95, 97– 99, 101, 106, 107, 112– 13,114, 118, 120, 123, 124 priors, 85, 87, 96, 98, 99 probability of accuracy of evidence, 103, 127, 134, 136 probability of evidence, 96, 97, 121, 122, 129, 131 (see also under evidence) bias / systematic errors, 91, 100, 124, 127–29, 134, 135, 139–42 black-boxing mechanisms, 11, 25, 33, 34, 39, 40, 49, 58, 73, 82, 110 bureaucratic politics, theory of, 107–19 calibrating concepts, 107, 149 case-centric research, 3, 12, 20, 23 and case selection, 22, 70, 156 explaining-outcome process-tracing, 18–22, 47–48, 63, 75, 156–61 case selection, 124, 144–50, 148, 149, 151, 155, 157 deviant cases, 154–56, 161 explaining-outcome process-tracing, 18–22, 47, 63, 75, 144, 156–61 generalization, 10, 12, 13, 70, 77,88, 159, 172n2 (chap. 5) least-likely cases, 48, 94, 150, 151, 152, 153, 158 most-likely cases, 48, 121, 150–53, 158 theory-building process-tracing, 154– 56, 155 196 Index case selection (continued) theory-testing process-tracing, 146–54, 149 typical cases, 60, 146, 148, 150, 153, 154, 156, 160,161 causal effect, 29, 36, 51, 57, 72, 74, 75, 78, 79, 80, 158 causal inference, 77 cross-case, 28, 70, 74, 93, 152 within-case, 2, 3, 4, 6, 13, 39, 69, 72, 74–78, 80–82, 88, 94 causality, 23, 24, 26, 28, 77 determinism, 23, 26, 27, 28,31, 77 mechanismic, 25, 32, 39, 77 probabilistic, 26, 27, 28,37, 74 regularity, 25, 28,37, 76, 77,158 causal mechanism actor / microlevel, 31, 32, 40–43, 54, 64 black-boxing of, 11, 25, 33, 34,39, 40, 49, 58, 73, 82, 110 conceptualization of, 38, 39, 46, 47, 50, 57, 63, 71,107–9, 112, 148 conglomerate mechanisms, 19, 21,23, 24, 27, 34, 36, 64 causal process observation (CPO). See under observations certainty of predictions, 96, 102, 104, 105, 108 classical statistical methods, 69, 79 collection of data, 124, 125 comparative methods, 28–30, 47, 69, 70, 76, 78, 81, 82, 88, 89, 91–93, 129, 144, 146, 148, 152, 153, 158 crisp set, 148–49 fuzzy-set (fsQCA), 61, 70, 146, 150, 163 Mill’s methods of agreement, 77,82 Mill’s methods of difference, 82 conceptualization, 38, 39, 46, 47, 50, 57, 63, 71,107–19, 112– 13,148 conditions, 30, 47, 81, 82, 150, 151 calibrating, 107, 149 necessary conditions, 30, 50, 81, 82 sufficient conditions, 27, 29, 30, 81, 82 conglomerate / composite mechanisms, 19, 21,23, 24, 27, 32, 34, 36, 64 congruence method (pattern matching), 4, 28, 90 contextual specificity. See scope conditions for causal mechanisms court trial (process-tracing similar to), 75, 80, 81 crisp-set concepts, 148 CSI (TV show), 92 Cuban Missile Crisis, 48, 63, 118, 131, 135, 154 data sources, 124 archives, 100, 123, 126, 128, 131, 137–39 firsthand, 173 interview, 134–36 memoirs, 140 newspaper sources, 142–43 primary sources, 132–33, 140 public speeches, 140, 141 secondary sources, 124, 132, 133, 135, 141 secondhand, 173n4 (chap. 7) data-set observation (DSO). See under observations deductive analysis / theory-before-facts, 10, 20, 46, 56 democratic peace, theory of, 48, 51, 71, 72,98, 99, 158 dependent variable, 46–47, 72, 74, 75 descriptive inference, 33, 68 determinism. See under causality deviant case, 150, 154, 155–56, 160,161 doubly decisive test. See under empirical tests eclectic theorization, 3, 13, 19, 34, 35, 60, 64, 66–67 elite interviews, 125, 126, 134 empirical predictions (case-specific), 14, 101, 102 certainty of predictions, 96, 102, 104, 105, 108 uniqueness of predictions, 96, 101–5...