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CHAPTER 6 The Future of Postmaterialism in Western Europe Just as algebraic techniques can be used to estimate the past impact ofreplacement in Western Europe, so can they be employed to estimate its future impact (see Abramson and Inglehart 1987, 1992; Inglehart 1990). In fact, these projections can be made even if one does not accept Inglehart's explanation for age-group differences. As we saw in chapter 5, Raymond M. Duch and Michaell A. Taylor accept Inglehart's thesis that there are substantial differences in the values of cohorts, but argue that they result from higher levels of formal education among the young. Even if one accepted their argument, one could still project the likely impact of future replacement on the distribution of Materialist/Postmaterialist values, since older cohorts with lower levels of formal education will be continuously leaving the population through death, and since the cohorts that come of age are likely to have relatively high levels of formal education. We do not know what values birth cohorts will have in future years, but we do have census estimates of the future population distribution of the eight Western European countries that we study.! In all eight countries, the future impact of replacement is limited by the same demographic reality. Replacement is very likely to be slower during the coming three decades than during the last two decades. The Future of Generational Replacement in Eight Societies Population projections for the eight countries published by the Statistical Office of the European Communities fortuitously match the cohort categories we employ in our analyses.2 They present estimates through the beginning of 2020, and we will rely mainly upon the projections for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020.3 These projections require assumptions about future death rates, as well as future levels of immigration and emigration. As we are concerned only with the population 15 years old and above, we can avoid assumptions about future birthrates, until we take our projections 16 or more years into the future. All of the adults to be sampled in the year 2000 have already been born, as have most adults to be sampled in 2010. To estimate the adult 89 90 Value Change in Global Perspective population in the year 2020 one must also make assumptions about future birthrates. In every country except Ireland, the cohorts born between 1976 and 1985 and between 1986 and 1995 are smaller than the cohorts born between 1956 and 1965 and between 1966 and 1975, and in Ireland they are projected to be the same size as these two older cohorts. Projections for the size of the cohort to be born between 1996 and 2005, which will come of age in the year 2020, are necessarily speculative, although in the early 1990s we can be confident that the mothers of these Europeans have already been bom.4 This cohort is also projected to be small, especially in Germany, where it is likely to make up 12 percent of the adult population. As a result of low birthrates, replacement is likely to be slow. In table 6-1 we show the percentage of the adult population in all eight societies that was replaced during the 22 years between the end of 1970 and the end of 1992,5 as well as the percentage of the adult population likely to be replaced during the 22 years between the end of 1992 and the beginning of 2015. As the table reveals, in all eight societies a substantially larger percentage of the population was replaced between 1970 and 1992 than will be replaced during the next 22 years. We also present the combined result for the six countries we study for this full period. Forty percent of the adult population was replaced TABLE 6-1. Percentage of the Adult Population Replaced Between 1970 and 1992 and between 1992 and 2015 in Eight Western European Societies Germany Britain The Netherlands France Belgium Italy Denmark Ireland Combined population of six Western European societies Percentage of Adult Population Replaced between the End of 1970 and the End of 1992 38% 40% 42% 41% 39% 40% 39% 460/0 40% Percentage of Adult Population That Will Be Replaced between the End of 1992 and the Beginning of 2015 29% 34% 33% 33% 30% 27% 320/0 350/0 31% Source: For the sources used for the estimates between 1970 and 1992, see table AI. The projections for the years between 1992 and 2015 are based on Statistical...

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