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2 Contemporary and Future Terror Threats Chemical agents are released into the ventilation system of a train station. Simultaneous cyberterrorism attacks cripple electricity grids. A “dirty bomb” explodes at a financial center. Deadly pathogens are introduced into the food supply. An explosives-laden cargo plane crashes into an open-air stadium. These scenarios illustrate some contemporary and future terror threats. This chapter builds upon the earlier perspectives by examining contemporary and future terrorist threats, including terrorist tactics and targets . Additionally, U.S. government terror warnings and advisories will be discussed. Government Terror Warnings and Advisories From 9/11 to February 2003, the FBI issued over 100 terror warnings to state and local law enforcement and investigated over 3,000 terrorist threats on American soil. In March 2002, the U.S. government established the Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS). The HSAS provides notice of possible terror threats as well as guidance thereto. Five threat conditions were identified, each with a corresponding color and terrorist risk level attached: low risk of a terror incident (green), guarded risk (blue), elevated risk (yellow), high risk (orange), and severe risk (red). The greatest probability and severity of a terrorist attack attaches with the red threat level (severe risk). The HSAS commenced at elevated risk (yellow) but was elevated to high risk (orange)—and subsequently 35 returned to elevated risk—on about half a dozen occasions since inception through 2003. The public has been exposed to the changes in the HSAS levels through government press conferences and extensive media coverage of the topic. HSAS is binding on the government’s executive branch but has resulted in corresponding responses by state and local government agencies and some businesses. The HSAS was intended to focus on specific regions of the country and certain sectors of the economy. But thus far, there have been inadequate findings—in the main—as to specificity of potential threats. Analogously, Rep. Christopher Cox (R-CA) has proposed modifying implementation of the HSAS system to allow for regional warnings and not national premonitions. Initially, the public and industry paid close attention to the HSAS and how it would impact—if in any way—their daily lives or businesses. As HSAS warnings accelerated in frequency, interest waned. Some have asserted that the pronouncements were more of an irritant than a productive resource. Perhaps it was the nature of several warnings—but no actual attack—that engendered fatigue among the population. There is also speculation that terrorists have observed government and business responses to HSAS changes and adjusted their modus operandi for future operations. This is not to suggest that the HSAS does not provide an important function. The government has also exposed the public to information regarding preferred responses in case of a terrorist-initiated emergency. Citizens were urged to put together an emergency supply kit and establish a family communications plan. It was recommended that an emergency supply kit include: flashlights, battery-powered radio, extra batteries, blankets, first aid kit and medicines, manual can opener, three days of non-perishable food and water, duct tape, and plastic sheeting. Also encouraged is a safe room to guard against airborne contaminants. On the matter of a family communication plan, the government suggested establishing a plan to be able to communicate with each other in the event of disparate types of attacks. Likewise, the Transportation Security Administration, an agency of the Department of Homeland Security, set out a list of items that are not permitted as carry-on items on airplanes. Among items on the prohibited list are: ammunition, automatic weapons, dynamite, hand grenades , knives, meat cleavers, numchucks, pepper spray, pistols, razor 36 Contemporary and Future Terror Threats s blades, revolvers, rifles, screwdrivers, shot guns, spear guns, and swords. Despite these admonitions, thousands of airline passengers—including some with malevolent intent—tried to bring some of the contraband items onto planes. Terrorists’ Modus Operandi Terrorist groups undertake various tactics to achieve their goals based upon, among other things, their capabilities and motivation. For our purposes, we will review the following types of operations: bombings, suicide attacks, cyberterrorism, and superterrorism (biological, chemical , radiological, and nuclear). Bombings There are a number of explosives and bomb threats that face government and industry. The FBI National Capital Response Squad/Joint Terrorism Task Force has described some types of bombs and their explosive-capacity characteristics. The various types of bombs include: pipe (5 lbs. of TNT), briefcase/suitcase (50 lbs. of TNT), compact sedan (500 lbs. of TNT...

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