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1. Introduction / Nicholas Eberstadt and Richard J. Ellings
- University of Washington Press
- Chapter
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1 Introduction Nicholas EberstadtandRichardJ. Ellings KOREA'S FUTURE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: THE IMPERATIVE OF FORWARD THINKING For over a century, the Korean Peninsula has figured fatefully in the international strategies ofall the major powers ofthe Pacific region: China, Russia , Japan, and the United States. A small, secluded, and impoverished kingdom -as Korea most assuredly was not so long ago-might not seem like an obvious prize for great powers to struggle over. But Korea is at the crossroads where the national interests ofthese Pacific powers converge: and their policies for protecting and promoting their interests have impelled their involvement in this once-remote region. Thus Korea became a stage upon which the drama of great power competition was played out--often to a tragic script. When the Pacific powers assessed their interests in Korea accurately, they were on occasion brought into bloody conflict with one another (as at the tum of the twentieth century ). Ifa Pacific power neglected or misassessed its interests in Korea, however , this too could lead to war between great powers-as the United States learned in 1950. 2 NICHOLAS EBERSTADT AND RICHARD J. ELLINGS In the half-century since the outbreak of the Korean War, Korea has undergone a monumental transformation; so has the character of great power politics in the Pacific. With South Korea's ascent to affluence and its emergence as an open, competitive democracy, and North Korea's simultaneous descent into mass starvation in the midst of a focused campaign to develop weapons of mass destruction under a dynastic socialist dictatorship, the political and economic contradictions within the Korean Peninsula itself have perhaps never been so great. By contrast, with the end of the Cold War, political hostilities between the Pacific powers have been vastly diminished. Though by no means impossible, it is far more difficult to envision a strategy -driven military confrontation between these Pacific powers today than it would have been just a few years ago. At the dawn of a new century, these local and international developments seem to lay the foundation for a dramatic and indeed historic change in the Pacific powers' interplay with the Korean Peninsula. Heretofore, in much the manner that Poland long served as "God's playground"l in European power politics, Korea has been akin to an anvil upon which the great powers of the Pacific have wielded their hammers to forge world history. In the strategic environment that is currently evolving, however, Korea looks to be increasingly positioned to act--deliberately or inadvertently-as a driver of international events. Today, indeed, developments emanating from the Korean Peninsula stand to have a serious impact on the national interests ofeach ofthe Pacific powers . The prospective developments are poised not only to affect the security and well-being of these powers directly, but also to challenge fledgling attempts to construct a durable regional order characterized by concerted cooperation anlong them. On the immediate horizon, North Korea's quest to develop an arsenal ofnuclear, biological, and chemical weapons-and the ballistic missile systems to target distant countries with these deadly devicesthreatens to alter the security calculus that has maintained stability and peace in the North Pacific region for the past five decades. Moreover, still greater Korean challenges to international peace and stability may lie in store. Divided Korea's two-state structure is under mounting internal pressures due to South Korea's successes and systemic North Korean failures. Indefi- [3.238.114.5] Project MUSE (2024-03-28 08:58 GMT) INTRODUCTION 3 nite continuation of the now-familiar two-state arrangement on the Korean Peninsula is no longer a foregone conclusion. Yet quite clearly termination of that arrangement could entail terrible upheavals, with repercussions reverberating well beyond the confines of the Korean Peninsula. Coping with radical change in Korea, and devising a new architecture for peace and prosperity in a very different Korea from the one we know today, may be urgent tasks confronting the Pacific powers and the international community in the uncertain years ahead. To date, unfortunately, such prospective tasks have been afforded precious little attention. Instead, in the capitals ofthe four Pacific powers-China, Japan, Russia, and the United States-policymakersand strategists seem to be more comfortable today positing a continuation of the Korean status quo than contemplating what alternative Korean futures might portend for their own national interests. The factors accounting for a lack of forward thinking about Korea at this relatively calm juncture in world affairs are, on the whole, quite understandable...