Civil Society in Central Asia

Can Uzbekistan Build Democracy and Civil Society?

Can Uzbekistan Build Democracy and Civil Society? Abdumannob Polat The process ofbuilding civil society in Uzbekistan cannot be characterized in simple black or white. As in many other states, the situation is more complicated than that. The basis for creating civil society does not yet exist in Uzbekistan. The purpose ofthis essay is to explore the reasons why and to suggest ways by which the situation might be changed. The dilemma that the Central Asian region and the developed nations face regarding this state is that while some people praise the current stability in Uzbekistan, the democratic community has serious concerns about the political development ofthe country. Many experts believe that the country's existing regime needs a step-by-step liberalization in order to ensure stability internally and across Central Eurasia into the future. Political developments in many nondemocratic countries, including Iran in the 1960s and 1970s and the current situation in Algeria, demonstrate the importance ofpursuing both stability and liberalization. The strategic importance and economic potential of Central Asia and the South Caucasus can for efforts by the major world powers to promote the construction of civil society in that region. Wise assistance programs that lead to the establishment ofviable, open societies in the region, and most especially in Uzbekistan-which is located in the heart of Central Asia, are critical to longterm stability and peace. The alternatives in the form of civil strife; religious, political, and ethnic radicalization; wars over scarce resources; and "corrective" intrusions by neighboring powers can be avoided much more easily, and less expensively, than they can be cured. As Sodyq Safaev, Uzbekistan's ambassador to the United States, has written , "an unstable, disunited Central Asia could create severe problems for an increasingly interdependent world. A passive policy toward Central Asia would be an unfortunate mistake, while an active, fully-engaged relationship would enable the West to obtain its own respective goals."1 Parts ofthis essay frrst appeared in the Central Asia Monitor, no. 1, 1998. 135 136 Abdummanob Polat Uzbekistan's Strategic Position Uzbekistan is located in the heart ofEurasia and is the most populous state in Central Asia with 24 million people, halfofwhom are under eighteen. It has a significant natural resource base, and its gold and uranium deposits are especially valuable. The country is also the world's fourth-largest cotton producer. Uzbekistan has a manufacturing sector in the textile, automotive, and aerospace industries, and it is the only Central Asian nation to manufacture ferrous metal products, cotton harvesters, cable products, and excavators. Today, Uzbekistan's strategic importance in the region is temporarily being overshadowed by oil-rich Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Most Western investors do not see business opportunities in this country where state control ofthe economy and business is still so strong and currency exchange policies are so restrictive . Together with the very high level ofbureaucracy and corruption in the country, these factors contribute to the lack ofany substantial interest in Uzbekistan by international economic and fmancial institutions and investors, and as a result, by the West in genera1.2 Levels of foreign investment have a strong impact on the level of current interest in a nation. But many experts recognize that Uzbekistan is in a strategically sensitive position at the crossroads ofRussia, China, Iran. Turkey, and Pakistan.3 Before its incorporation into Russia in the 1860s, the predecessors ofthe modern Uzbeks were a dominant political and cultural force in Central Asia, and Uzbekistan 's influence remains strong today among neighboring countries. For example , in Tajikistan's civil war in 1992-93, Uzbekistan joined Russia in backing the Kulabi warlords (and then the Hojandi clan), making it possible for the current government to be established.4 However, disagreements between Rakhmonov 's government in Dushanbe, supported by Russia, and Tajikistan's regions sympathetic to Uzbekistan and President Karimov caused problems between the two countries.5 Indeed, the failures ofUzbek policy toward Tajikistan and Afghanistan, whose northern provinces are Uzbekistan's natural allies but which are currently excluded from power within their own nations, have had a serious impact on the position ofUzbekistan. To a significant extent the conflicts in Afghanistan and Tajikistan have an interethnic character, and the exclusion of significant ethnic minorities and important provinces from national power structures and from attempts to bring stability and peace to these countries creates the danger ofnew conflicts and tension in the region. A military rebellion reported in early November of 1998 in Tajikistan's Hojand province, supposedly promoted by many important representatives...