The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior

Preface and Acknowledgments

Preface and Acknowledgments W hy, since the beginning of the twenty-first century, have so many Latin American countries elected governments that identify themselves with the ideological Left? This is a question for which journalists, political analysts, and political scientists have sought explanations. The most common ones suggest this shift is a backlash against the neoliberal economic model implemented in the 1980s and 1990s. Others have pointed out that the primary factor is a need for change. Popular discontent with traditional parties unable to solve the problems of poverty, corruption, and inequality, it is argued, has impelled Latin Americans to vote for political parties that are perceived as being more likely to deliver a better standard of living. But it may not be that simple. Alternative arguments question the very existence of a movement toward the Left. And the differences among leftwing governments may be more significant than their similarities. The Success of the Left in Latin America is the first book that disentangles these arguments. It does so by answering three questions: (1) Is the success of leftist parties something new and general in the region? (2) What particular features of market-oriented economic reforms, and what economic and political conditions, have benefited left-leaning parties ? (3) Why are Latin Americans voting for left-oriented parties? Is their vote expressing a policy mandate or an outcome mandate? My central argument is that the recent rise of leftist parties in Latin America has come about as a result of voters punishing political parties xv that were unable to improve the economic well-being of their electorates. Left-of-center parties took advantage of this popular discontent and capitalized on social and economic dissatisfaction because they were untainted , that is, outside the governing coalitions and in the opposition. Moreover, the electoral possibilities of success for leftist parties depend on the number of “untainted opposition” parties available in the political system. In countries like Brazil and Uruguay, where leftist parties embody the only untainted opposition, it was easier to capitalize on popular discontent than in Mexico, where a party on the Right also represented an untainted opposition. This book demonstrates that greater levels of market reforms did not produce more votes for political parties on the Left. Rather than neoliberal economic reforms, the key macro variable is unemployment. Leftleaning parties in Latin America increase their electoral chances when unemployment is high. In other words, Latin Americans are less policy oriented than outcome oriented, and rather than ideologically concerned about neoliberal polices, they care about economic results. In addition to explaining the recent electoral success of leftist parties, The Success of the Left in Latin America questions a predominant scholarly preconception that depicts Latin Americans as random and unpredictable voters. The results of recent elections indicate that Latin American electorates are capable of holding politicians accountable by voting against those parties that did not provide what was expected and rewarding those in which they still believe. The idea for this book began in a graduate seminar taught by Mitchell Seligson at the University of Pittsburgh in 2002. The main purpose of that course was to teach students how to think, write, and develop good research ideas. At that moment, the movement of Latin America to the Left was a new phenomenon, and my idea to study it was severely criticized . However, history and the decisions of Latin Americans transformed that small ideological movement into a very large one, and I continued to refine my arguments and hypotheses, eventually transforming them into a dissertation proposal. At that stage, I was also very fortunate xvi Preface and Acknowledgments to have an excellent dissertation committee that helped me through the research process. So, first of all, I want to thank the four members of the committee: Barry Ames, John Markoff, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, and Mitchell Seligson. They have been inspiring teachers, sage advisers, and incisive and constructive critics. Several professors, colleagues, and friends provided insightful feedback at particular stages of this project and read specific chapters. In particular , I wish to thank María José Alvarez, Juan Ariel Bogliaccini, Fernanda Boidi, Luis E. González, Mark Hallerberg, Germán Lodola, Mary Malone, Juan Carlos Rodríguez-Raga, and Margit Tavits for their suggestions , criticisms, and encouragement. James McCann took on the task of reviewing the micro-level chapter and provided insightful comments. Matthew Daniels’s editorial assistance...