The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior

Chapter 6: The Search for Untainted Parties

Chapter 6 The Search for Untainted Parties T his book examines the impact of neoliberal economic reforms implemented in Latin America during the 1980s and 1990s on the shift to the Left. In particular, it seeks to answer three concrete research questions: (a) is the success of leftist parties in Latin America something new and general in the region? (b) is it true that market-oriented economic reforms are behind the leftist tide or, regardless of those policies, that certain economic and political conditions have benefited left-leaning parties’ electoral performance? and (c) what are the determinants of Latin Americans’ vote for left-oriented parties? When citizens in a region well known for its clientelistic practices vote, are they behaving in a policy-oriented or outcome-oriented way? All this is relevant to gaining an understanding as to just what the demand behind the leftist tide is: policies favoring more state intervention or just better economic results? A combination of methodologies were used to answer these questions . First, a cross-national regression analysis was performed using data from seventeen countries covering the period from 1985 to 2004. This dataset, in addition to containing the percentage of votes for each ideological bloc during that period, includes variables that measure the level of neoliberal reforms implemented in each country, a set of economic variables that appraise economic well-being, and a series of political variables that account for the political context. Second, an individuallevel analysis performed in a most-different system design was used to 147 respond to the question about the factors that lead Latin American voters to choose a leftist party. The three country cases analyzed are Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay, covering the period from 1980 to 2004. For each of these countries, a multivariate analysis was carried out to test the in- fluence of different factors on the intention to vote for leftist parties. Examining voting choice both from the macro and micro perspectives has the advantage of overcoming the flaws present in each approach. The aggregate-level examination offers insights into the impact that different levels of market-oriented economic reforms, macroeconomic conditions , and different political contexts have on the electoral fortunes of leftist parties. Put differently, it has the benefit of assessing the impact of objective conditions on political behavior. However, it also has an important shortcoming: individuals do not always behave by taking into account objective conditions. On the contrary, they often act based on their perceptions, which is why it is so important to complement the investigation with an individual-level analysis. The micro-level perspective takes into account the reasoning processes through which individuals make decisions at the ballot box and makes it possible to examine how macro-level conditions (e.g., reforms, inflation, unemployment) are perceived and valued by citizens (Echegaray 2005). For example, it may be that in a particular Latin American country few neoliberal economic reforms have actually been implemented. Due to an intense campaign against these reforms, however, the electorate perceives them to have been deeply and highly harmful. Perceptions of reality do not necessarily coincide with objective reality; they are highly prone to persuasion from politicians or the media. But the micro analysis also has some problems. One of the most important is the danger of respondents giving spurious answers (Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson 2002). By comparing the results of the individual level of analysis with the macro level of analysis, concerns about spuriousness can be overcome or at least reduced. Several conclusions may be derived from this investigation. First, ideological cycles have existed in Latin America in the same way they have existed in the more developed world. Latin America has experienced four ideological cycles since 1945. The beginning of each cycle correlates with pessimistic popular moods, popular discontent, and dissatisfaction 148 The Success of the Left in Latin America with particular developmental models implemented in the region. Left and Right have switched their predominance since 1945, neither of them being the leading ideology throughout the period. The Left was prevalent from 1969 to 1976, a period in Latin American history that happens to be full of dissatisfaction with the economy, unhappiness with the ISI model, rising inequality in income distribution, high levels of unemployment, and a growing informal sector. In spite of the fact that the region had positive growth rates during some of those years, the sense of failure and unful...