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How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations

A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.

Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.

Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
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  1. Title page, Copyright page
  2. pp. i-vi
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  1. Contents
  2. pp. vii-viii
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  1. Acknowledgments
  2. pp. ix-xii
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  1. Introduction. Our Gift
  2. pp. 1-11
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  1. Chapter 1. Adaptive Biases: Making the Right Mistakes in International Politics
  2. pp. 12-28
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  1. Chapter 2. The Evolution of an Idea: Politics in the Age of Biology
  2. pp. 29-47
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  1. Chapter 3. Fortune Favors the Bold: The Strategic Advantages of Overconfidence
  2. pp. 48-84
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  1. Chapter 4. The Lion and the Mouse: Overconfidence and the American Revolution
  2. pp. 85-114
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  1. Chapter 5. Hedging Bets: The Strategic Advantages of Attribution Error
  2. pp. 115-144
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  1. Chapter 6. Know Your Enemy: Britain and the Appeasement of Hitler
  2. pp. 145-173
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  1. Chapter 7. United We Stand: The Strategic Advantages of Group Bias
  2. pp. 174-208
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  1. Chapter 8. No Mercy: The Pacific Campaign of World War II
  2. pp. 209-241
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  1. Chapter 9. Overkill: The Limits of Adaptive Biases
  2. pp. 242-266
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  1. Chapter 10. Guardian Angels: The Strategic Advantages of Cognitive Biases
  2. pp. 267-292
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  1. Notes
  2. pp. 293-352
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  1. Index
  2. pp. 353-378
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Additional Information

ISBN
9780691185606
Related ISBN
9780691210605
MARC Record
OCLC
1164531175
Pages
392
Launched on MUSE
2020-07-22
Language
English
Open Access
No
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