In this Book

summary

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.

Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Half Title, Series Info, Title Page, Copyright
  2. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Contents
  2. pp. v-vii
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. List of Figures
  2. pp. viii-ix
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. List of Tables
  2. p. x
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Preface
  2. pp. xi-xiv
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem
  2. pp. 1-8
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 2. Geopolitics
  2. pp. 9-28
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 3. Collective Solidarity
  2. pp. 29-49
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory
  2. pp. 50-77
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 5. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory
  2. pp. 78-93
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 6. Ethnokinetics
  2. pp. 94-117
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 7. The Demographic-Structural Theory
  2. pp. 118-149
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 8. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers
  2. pp. 150-169
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 9. Case Studies
  2. pp. 170-196
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Chapter 10. Conclusion
  2. pp. 197-204
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix
  2. pp. 205-213
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory
  2. pp. 214-225
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Bibliography
  2. pp. 226-242
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents
  1. Index
  2. pp. 243-245
  3. restricted access
    • Download PDF Download
    contents

Additional Information

ISBN
9781400889310
Related ISBN
9780691180779
MARC Record
OCLC
1030027318
Pages
264
Launched on MUSE
2018-04-02
Language
English
Open Access
No
Back To Top

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Without cookies your experience may not be seamless.