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War by Numbers assesses the nature of conventional warfare through the analysis of historical combat. Christopher A. Lawrence establishes what we know about conventional combat and why we know it. By demonstrating the impact a variety of factors have on combat he moves such analysis beyond the work of Carl von Clausewitz and into modern data and interpretation.

Using vast data sets, Lawrence examines force ratios, the human factor in case studies from World War II and beyond, the combat value of superior situational awareness, and the effects of dispersion, among other elements. Lawrence challenges existing interpretations of conventional warfare and shows how such combat should be conducted in the future, simultaneously broadening our understanding of what it means to fight wars by the numbers.
 

Table of Contents

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  1. Cover
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  1. Title Page, Copyright Page
  2. pp. i-vi
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  1. Contents
  2. pp. vii-viii
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  1. Preface
  2. pp. ix-x
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  1. Acknowledgments
  2. pp. xi-xii
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  1. Abbreviations
  2. pp. xiii-xiv
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  1. 1. Understanding War
  2. pp. 1-7
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  1. 2. Force Ratios
  2. pp. 8-13
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  1. 3. Attacker versus Defender
  2. pp. 14-15
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  1. 4. Human Factors
  2. pp. 16-18
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  1. 5. Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Italy, 1943– 1944
  2. pp. 19-31
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  1. 6. Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Ardennes and Kursk, July 1943
  2. pp. 32-48
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  1. 7. Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Modern Wars
  2. pp. 49-59
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  1. 8. Outcome of Battles
  2. pp. 60-71
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  1. 9. Exchange Ratios
  2. pp. 72-78
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  1. 10. The Combat Value of Superior Situational Awareness
  2. pp. 79-120
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  1. 11. The Combat Value of Surprise
  2. pp. 121-145
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  1. 12. The Nature of Lower Levels of Combat
  2. pp. 146-160
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  1. 13. The Effects of Dispersion on Combat
  2. pp. 161-173
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  1. 14. Advance Rates
  2. pp. 174-180
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  1. 15. Casualties
  2. pp. 181-205
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  1. 16. Urban Legends
  2. pp. 206-264
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  1. 17. The Use of Case Studies
  2. pp. 265-284
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  1. 18. Modeling Warfare
  2. pp. 285-298
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  1. 19. Validation of the TNDM
  2. pp. 299-324
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  1. 20. Conclusions
  2. pp. 325-328
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  1. Appendix 1: Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat
  2. pp. 329-334
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  1. Appendix 2: Dupuy’s Combat Advance Rate Verities
  2. pp. 335-338
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  1. Appendix 3: Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities
  2. pp. 339-344
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  1. Notes
  2. pp. 345-368
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  1. Bibliography
  2. pp. 369-374
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