Cover

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Title Page, Copyright, Dedication

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pp. i-vi

Contents

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pp. vii-viii

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1. How Do Insurgents Fight and Defeat Foreign States in War?

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pp. 1-24

How do insurgent forces fight and defeat foreign states in war? What can powerful states do to prevent policy disaster when they confront nonstate rebels in foreign lands? Recent conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria— and Western experiences with them— have all underscored the importance of understanding how nonstate insurgent and guerrilla forces have dealt with ...

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2. Origins and Proliferation of Sequencing

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pp. 25-39

As this book’s title suggests, the intellectual roots of sequencing theory lie in the application of evolutionary thought to the field of international security. Sequencing theory draws from the combination of two propositions in the field— Darwinian adaptation by natural selection and Lamarckian inheritance of acquired characteristics— that are often considered to be intellectual opposites. First, Darwinian selection operates on the logic of competition...

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3. How Sequencing Theory Works

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pp. 40-62

Recent proliferation of sequential strategies, both in practice and through academia, attests to the growing recognition of the importance of using sequences in conflict. Th e existing ideas and works, however, need an overarching framework, which requires us to explore precisely how sequencing theory works. To answer this question I disaggregate its components in the...

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4. The Conventional Model: The Dahomean War (1890–1894)

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pp. 63-78

In this chapter, I deploy the conventional model as a theoretical framework to examine the Dahomean War. The central proposition of this chapter is that war against a stronger foreign power is an impossible task if the insurgent side adopts a conventional model. According to this model, insurgent forces engage in open-terrain violence with their counterpart until one side is defeated. The conventional model is characterized by the direct...

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5. The Primitive Model: Malayan Emergency (1948–1960)

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pp. 79-93

In this chapter, I apply the primitive model of sequencing theory to show that insurgent rebels are likely to lose war if they fight solely using a guerrilla strategy. Between 1948 and 1960, insurgents belonging to the Malayan Communist Party (MCP) fought British and local forces for the independence of a communist state in Malaya in a protracted guerrilla war until they were defeated. There were many factors that led to their defeat, including...

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6. The Degenerative Model: The Iraq War (2003–2011)

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pp. 94-114

There have been few research projects to date explaining why the military operation in Iraq ended the way it did in 2011. Here I present the degenerative model of the sequencing theory to do so. The model deploys a useful framework to deconstruct the complex war, which involved a number of states, armed forces, tribes, insurgents, and warlords as well as a diverse set...

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7. The Premature Model: The Anglo-Somali War (1900–1920)

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pp. 115-130

The Anglo-Somali War of 1900 to 1920 is an example of the “premature” model. In this model, insurgents initially fight like guerrilla forces yet evolve into regular armies to fight conventional war. The model depicts the fighting in terms of a midwar transition from a period of guerrilla war into a phase of conventional war. The model is a “premature” one because, while insurgents do evolve from a guerrilla organization into a modern army, they do...

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8. The Maoist Model: The Guinean War of Independence (1963–1974)

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pp. 131-149

The Guinean War of in de pen dence receives little attention from the public today, but it reveals quite a drama about extrasystemic war. A tiny political group called the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde, or PAIGC) in this little-known place began a rural guerrilla insurgency before it became one of the best organized armed forces of West African history and...

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9. The Progressive Model: The Indochina War (1946–1954)

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pp. 150-168

The progressive model of the sequencing theory is best represented by the Indochina War, a war between Vietminh and French forces between 1946 and 1954. Apparently an underdog in this war, the Vietminh fought face- to-face with the colonial master that had dominated Indochina for decades.2 The drama about this case was that after years of struggle, the Vietminh...

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Conclusion

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pp. 169-190

The central argument of this book is that insurgent groups are likely to defeat foreign states in war when they achieve an orderly combination of three phases: state building, guerrilla war, and conventional war. Adaptation and evolution through the right sequences, therefore, are central to success and failure. Evolving in the “right” sequences, however, imposes a significant burden on those seeking to achieve it. Insurgents need to outperform their...

Appendix A. List of Extrasystemic Wars (1816–2010)

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pp. 191-200

Appendix B. Description of 148 Wars and Sequences

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pp. 201-242

Notes

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pp. 243-270

Bibliography

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pp. 271-292

Index

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pp. 293-298

Acknowledgments

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pp. 299-301