Abstract

I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.

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Additional Information

ISSN
1533-7790
Print ISSN
0070-3370
Pages
pp. 287-310
Launched on MUSE
2002-05-01
Open Access
No
Archive Status
Archived 2010
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