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A Simple Method for Estimating Age-Specific Rates from Sequential Cross Sections
- Demography
- Population Association of America
- Volume 39, Number 2, May 2002
- pp. 287-310
- 10.1353/dem.2002.0018
- Article
- Additional Information
I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.