Military Capabilities of South and North Korea: A Comparative Study

ASIAN PERSPECTIVE, Vol. 14, No. 1, Spring-Summer 1990, pp. 113-143 MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF SOUTH AND NORTH KOREA: A COMPARATIVE STUDY Tae-Hwan Kwak Introduction The South Korean government and U.S. authorities have maintained that U.S. troops in Korea should stay for many years to come because North Korea's military capability far exceeds that of South Korea. They often cite the fact that the military balance between the two Koreas is in favor of North Korea by 2:1, and North Korea has been pouring about 20 percent of its Gross National Product (GNP) into military expenditures, while South Korea has been spending only 6 percent of its GNP. In this context, Mr. Lee Sang-Hoon, former vice commander of the U.S.-Korea Combined Forces Command and now ROK defense minister, has recently said that the joint combat capabili­ ties of South Korea and U.S. amount to 67.7 percent of North Korea's capabilities. He forecast that in 1991, the joint military forces of South Korea and the U.S. would achieve a defensive military capability against North Korea's aggression of 70 percent of North Korea's capability, and that in 1996, they would achieve a deterrent capability of 80 percent of North Korea's capability (Cho, 1988: 251; Cha, 1987: 19). However, it may lead to a wrong conclusion to evaluate the two Korea's military capabilities using such a superficial comparison. Military capability is comprised of tangible as well as intangible elements. Often military analysts neglect intangible components of military capability such as relative performance of weaponry, industrial capability, morale, and 114 Tae-Hwan Kwak leadership in accounting for a country's war-fighting potential. However, it would be almost meaningless to evaluate the mili­ tary capabilities of North and South Korea by comparing only the number of armed forces and the number of weapons of the two Koreas. This is especially true if we consider military structure and organization as well as weapons systems of the two Koreas: they greatly differ from one another. As a matter of fact, North Korea enjoys quantitative superiority over South Korea in every branch of the armed forces (army, navy and air force). Nevertheless, this does not guarantee North Korea's military superiority over South Korea; there are other aspects of their military capabilities. For instance, the weaponry of the ROK (the Republic of Korea) is generally superior to that of the DPRK (the Democratic Peo­ ple's Republic of Korea). South Korean Armed Forces are also at an advantage in that they gained combat experience through involvement in the Vietnam war. North Korea has been sending small groups of military advisers and combat forces to Third World coun­ tries in the name of promotion of national liberation wars. However, that cannot be compared with the ROK's involvement in Vietnam in both scale and scope. Geography, terrain, and the defensive posture of South Korea also work to South Korea's advantage in case of war. The geography and terrain of the Korean peninsula are such that it would be relatively easy to give a fatal blow to offen­ sive forces. In other words, the aggressor runs the risk of losing enormous portions of its resources and manpower in a land battle. Many analysts of North Korea's military strategy agree that the DPRK's war strategy revolves around a blitzkrieg type offensive strategy emphasizing initial breakthrough of an enemy's defense line by using massed armored forces, speedy advance, and concentration of fire power. An analysis by the South Korean government indicates that North Korea's blitz­ krieg plan would seek to win a victory in 5-7 days after the outbreak of war.1 Aware of this, the defensive posture of South 1. For North Korea's Military Strategy, see Niksch (1986: 258-265); Lho (1988: 42-44). For the defense strategy of the ROK and the U.S. forces, see Nam (1987: 276-284). Military Capabilities of South and North Korea 115 Korea's military is geared to blunting North Korea's surprise attack. In a war of attrition, Seoul has the advantage in popula­ tion and economic power. As...