Is China Unstable?: Assessing the Factors (review)

Perhaps one of the most important political issues facing China today is the problem of stability. While the many changes that have taken place in China over the past twenty years have brought about rapid economic growth, and many regard China as a rising power, the country also shows many signs of unrest and potential political instability. Social discontent, rural demonstrations, ideological and organizational decay in the Party, the rise of new sects such as Falun Gong, and worries about the future health of the economy are all features of the political landscape in China. The question is how to assess the significance of these problems. Are they just the normal by-products of a system that has been undergoing constant change and reform, or are they warning signs of greater trouble yet to come? Are these problems increasing? Will the Chinese leadership be able successfully to deal with these domestic challenges or will it simply be overwhelmed? These are some of the important questions addressed by David Shambaugh and his colleagues in Is China Unstable? The essays in this volume represent a welcome and timely study that provides a thoughtful and balanced assessment of a wide variety of factors—economic, social, and political—that might give rise to instability in China.

In addition to two introductory chapters on conceptual issues, there are nine chapters focusing on specific issue areas. David Shambaugh examines the central Party leadership. Bruce Dickson looks at problems with the middle and lower levels of the CCP. Nicholas Lardy and Pieter Bottelier each provide a chapter on economic issues and stability. Dorothy Solinger and Thomas Bernstein discuss problems in urban and rural areas, respectively. Merle Goldman focuses on problems with intellectuals and students. June Teufel Dreyer contributes a chapter on China's minorities and the potential for greater problems in minority regions. Martin Whyte concludes the volume with an analysis of social trends. The two introductory chapters, by Steven F. Jackson and H. Lyman Miller, respectively, are especially useful as they provide a much-needed conceptual and historical context in which to place the other, more specialized essays. Many of the specialized chapters differ as to what constitutes evidence of instability or how exactly to define it. Instability can be defined in a number of different ways including social protest and riots, political dissent, leadership disputes, economic chaos, regime collapse, and civil war. The Jackson and Miller chapters offer a useful typology and set of definitions to sort out various degrees of instability and their meaning. They also quite rightly place the current problems within a historical context. China has suffered many periods of instability in the past; indeed, one can argue that stability is the exception in China over the past few hundred years, and it is very important to keep that history in mind when trying to gauge what is going on currently.

In general, the authors conclude that while there are numerous sources of unrest and that China is more unstable now than at any time since the Cultural Revolution, the collapse of the regime appears to be unlikely. All the chapters are careful to point out that potential factors for unrest are counterbalanced by strengths such as a growing economy. In addition, many of the factors that might lead to greater instability, such as rural protest, are highly localized. The articles thus indicate that there is a fine balance between factors that can lead to instability and those that can lead to a more stable, prosperous China. This set of conditions, what several of the authors refer to as "stable unrest," is likely to continue for some time with plenty of potential for China to move toward either greater or less stability. There is, however, a note of caution as it is also clear that most of the authors feel that the potential for greater unrest and instability is...