The Contemporary Middle East in an Age of Upheaval ed. by James L. Gelvin (review)

Has the twenty-first century radically transformed the political and social landscape of the Middle East? Following the United States' invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab uprisings of 2010/11, an unrelenting onslaught of violence has destabilized the region and called into question the continuity of the region's entrenched orders. But amid this upheaval, how much has really changed? Has the Middle East entered uncharted territory or do most of the old rules still apply?

Edited by James Gelvin, The Contemporary Middle East in an Age of Upheaval offers some qualified answers to these pressing questions. Writing a history of the present is a tricky business. Fortunately, this effort is shepherded by one of our era's most accomplished historians of the contemporary Middle East. In his introductory chapter, Gelvin successfully lays out a thoughtful meditation on a question—is there a new Middle East or not?—whose ultimate answer will be unknowable for years to come. The book's contributors largely find that despite the radical challenges of the past two decades, the contemporary Middle East is an evolutionary update, not a revolutionary one.

Diverse chapters summarize developments in the regional economy, Islamist politics, and the political futures of several key states. Alongside updates on well-known phenomena like crony capitalism and oil dependence, in the opening chapter Joel Beinin offers insights into newer dynamics such as intraregional foreign direct investment. But overall, consideration of the region's historical political economy and of state-business relations lands a significant blow against the hypothesis of historical rupture. Selections by Peter Mandaville (Chapter 6) and Nathan J. Brown (Chapter 7) address the crisis within the region's Islamist movements following the temporary high of winning office in Egypt and Tunisia in 2012 and the subsequent reckoning with public opprobrium and state repression. In Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, recent history has posed existential threats to previously stable states. Authoritarian leaders such as Muhammad bin Salman Al Sa'ud (also known as MbS) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seem poised to perpetuate a kind of authoritarian stagnation, despite their claims of reform and progress. Meanwhile, vicious wars in Syria and Iraq have left those societies devastated, with massive population loss and displacement, their prospects hindered by previously unknown levels of sectarianism and social fragmentation.

Standout contributions from Laurie Brand on education and human security, Kevan Harris on the myths of political behavior in Iran, and Aomar Boum on "poets of the revolutions" (i.e., rappers), in North Africa significantly revise our understanding of core social relationships related to education, class status, and youth culture. Brand forcefully argues that systemic failings in public education across the region have diminished human dignity and opportunity, with little prospect for improvement. Harris convincingly argues that identification with Iran's middle class is based mainly on conspicuous consumption and self-image, rather than political consciousness or collective action. Leveraging original, large-scale survey data from the impressive Iran Social Survey,¹ the chapter undermines a widespread faith in the political activism of Iran's rising middle class. Taking a literary approach, Boum mines the catalog of Arabic hip-hop to establish a historical continuity among youth protest movements since the 1990s, belying a common belief that the adoption of internet-based social media renders contemporary activism unique. Together, these contributions provide a powerful. challenge to the conventional wisdom that the Middle East's large "overeducated and underemployed" youth generation, connected by social media, is the key driver of social and political change in the region.

Should a "new" Middle East emerge, its genesis may not be found within individual states, where fundamental economic, political, and social forces appear largely resistant to rapid change. In Part Four, contributors raise the possibility of a more substantial transformation at the international level, where dynamics like proxy wars and foreign intervention have the potential to reorder regional politics. In superb chapters...