The Philippines' Hedging between the United States and China: Can the Biden Administration Tip the Balance?

In February 2021, President Rodrigo Duterte admitted the necessity of the Philippines' alliance with the United States and stated that Manila would renegotiate the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement with Washington. His grudging acknowledgment of the value of the Philippine-U.S. alliance reflects a gradual shift in Philippine foreign policy. At the start of his presidency, Duterte aimed to transform the Philippines' South China Sea policy from being one of confrontation to one of conciliation through dialogue with China,¹ and his administration endeavored to foster closer Philippines-China diplomatic and economic relations. In the process, he adopted a more nuanced stance toward Philippine security relations with the United States and tipped the balance toward China.

The institutional relationship between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the U.S. armed services, however, withstood the Duterte administration's efforts to disparage the alliance while strengthening ties with China. And after five years of pursuing a policy of appeasement toward China, the Philippines is tipping back toward the United States and incrementally consolidating its U.S. security ties to constrain China's revisionist agenda in the South China Sea.

This essay examines two interrelated questions: what is the state of the Duterte administration's appeasement policy on China, and why is the Philippines cautiously returning to stabilizing its alliance with the United States? It then looks at what the Biden administration should do to make the Philippines give up its appeasement policy and strengthen security ties with the United States for a 21st-century alliance.

The Duterte Administration's Policy of Appeasement

From 2011 to 2016, then president Benigno Aquino III pursued a balancing policy toward China and favored closer security relations with the United States, including an unequivocal security guarantee from the United States under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). Upon taking office, however, President Rodrigo Duterte reversed Aquino's strategy toward China's South China Sea claims and focused on appeasing China with the hopes that the Philippines would benefit from closer relations with the emerging global economic power. This policy, in turn, triggered a crisis in Philippines-U.S. relations.

In October 2016, Duterte vowed to expel U.S. Special Forces who were supporting the AFP's antiterrorism and counterinsurgency operations in Mindanao and to chart an independent foreign policy. He also canceled the 2017 Balikatan exercise and suspended the joint Philippines-U.S. naval patrols in the South China Sea. At the same time, Duterte pursued a rapprochement with China to promote bilateral ties and secure economic assistance.² Beijing and Manila opened formal lines of communication, which paved the way for resuming bilateral consultations on trade, infrastructure development, and tourism, as well as cooperation in science, technology, and health. Duterte announced that the United States had "lost" because of the Philippines' military and economic separation.³ The Philippines' distancing from the United States was immediately seen as a serious setback for Washington and a diplomatic victory for Beijing, one that could even influence other states to be pulled into China's orbit.⁴

However, Duterte's approach alienated the Philippine military, which still considers its links with the U.S. armed forces crucial to its operations.⁵ U.S. forces have provided technical assistance in combating Muslim militants in the southern Philippines, many AFP officers were trained in the United States, and the two militaries have been staging joint military exercises for 70 years. Furthermore, the Philippine military greatly appreciates defense articles channeled through the U.S. government's foreign military sales program. The program involves a "total package approach," which means the recipient country receives all the support articles and services required to operate and maintain the equipment to ensure their continued use long into the future.⁶ The quality and amount of U.S. military assistance since the Obama administration has fostered support for the U.S. military presence in the country and the alliance from both the AFP and the general population.⁷

The Trump Administration's Policy of Strategic Patience

Notwithstanding Duterte's...