Abstract

Abstract:

With the ‘return of geopolitics’ in Europe signalled in earnest by Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, this article examines the implications of Donald Trump's unpredictable US security policy for regional security in Northern Europe. While Trump's public rhetoric chastising NATO creates uncertainties for Europe's security, his administration's policy has remained committed to NATO's deterrence efforts. Against initial expectations for US-Russia rapprochement based on realpolitik during the Trump era, controversies and the administration's security policy actions have brought some unexpected discord in relations with Russia. A realist ‘grand bargain’ between Moscow and Washington that marginalises Nordic and Baltic security interests has become a remote prospect. Despite these reprieves, enhanced Nordic-Baltic security and defence cooperation is increasingly necessary. Overcoming occasional divergence in strategic preferences for effective military cooperation will ensure that the Nordic and Baltic states can strengthen regional deterrence and improve political relations with the Trump administration in an era of possible ‘transatlantic drift’.

This paper is based on the author's presentation to the annual conference of the International Affairs Standing Committee of the Royal Irish Academy, titled ‘Retreat from Globalisation? Brexit, Trump and the New Populism’, which took place at the Royal Irish Academy in Dublin on 31 May 2017. Earlier versions of some sections of this article have appeared in a chapter of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs Report 51 and Eoin Micheál McNamara, ‘A time for alternative options? Prospects for the Nordic-Baltic security community during the Trump era’, in Mika Aaltola and Bart Gaens (eds), Managing unpredictability: transatlantic relations in the Trump era (Helsinki, 2017). The author wishes to thank Mika Aaltola and Bart Gaens for their helpful comments on some earlier sections of this article.

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