Ukrainian Youth and Ukraine in Europe: A Cohort Analysis of the Drivers of Attitudes Toward the EU
- Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization
- Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, The George Washington University
- Volume 29, Number 4, Fall 2021
- pp. 409-448
- Additional Information
Using the original MOBILISE survey dataset, we conduct statistical analyses to account for between-cohort patterns in support for Ukraine’s EU accession. Controlling for age, we devise two sets of political event cohorts: the first testing the so-called “EuroMaidan Generation” hypothesis about cohorts based around major moments of mass mobilization, the second testing established political science theory around political socialization during critical elections. We demonstrate that the “2019 election cohort” (those who could first vote when Zelenskyy won the Presidency) and not the “2014” (Poroshenko election) or “EuroMaidan” cohorts are most likely to support EU accession; this effect only dissipates when we control for migration intention. We also confirm that socio-economic situation, geographic residence, and pro-democratic views correlate with and explain variation in preferences for Ukraine’s EU accession. Notably, we find no evidence that either language or ethnicity are key driving factors.